NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks

It is “good on good” in Week 11 of the NFL, as several matchups pit the best teams in the league against each other amid a loaded 14-game slate.

• Following Thursday night’s Commanders-Eagles game where first place in the NFC East was up for grabs, Week 11 still has tasty matchups with the Ravens and Steelers, and Chiefs and Bills
• Kansas City is the fourth team in the Super Bowl era that is 9-0 or better to be an underdog
• Underdogs went 11-3 ATS in Week 10

As we continue our Week 11 NFL predictions, my NFL Week 11 best bets include our first teaser play of the season, give our best play on the most anticipated game of the week, and back an MVP-caliber quarterback to have a huge bounce-back game. 

Best NFL player props & ATS predictions for Week 11

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Jaguars  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Bo Nix Over 27.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Falcons  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Teaser Parlay: Dolphins -1 and Steelers +9 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Chiefs-Bills Under 46.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 11 NFL odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

• Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots (+4.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-7.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Green Bay Packers (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears (+5.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) vs. Detroit Lions (-14), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. New Orleans Saints (-1), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Minnesota Vikings (-6) vs. Tennessee Titans (+6), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Indianapolis Colts (+4) vs. New York Jets (-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
• Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-6.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
• Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
• Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (+7.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

NFL props for Week 11

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 56.52%

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in OR/NH. 1 per customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Get promo code to redeem NFL Sunday Ticket sub and max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets; 7 day expiry.

Claim $200

Goff earned his first career win after trailing by double-digits at halftime last week (he had been 0-23). However, it was not all roses for Goff against the Houston Texans, as he became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win a road game despite throwing five or more interceptions.

I expect head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to do everything in their power to get Goff right in this matchup. 

Do not be fooled by a Jaguars defense that held the Vikings without a touchdown last week. Jacksonville allows the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and has allowed the overall weekly QB1 in fantasy football a whopping five times this year.

Goff’s implied probability to throw two or more touchdown passes is as high as 57.81% based on Caesars’ -137 odds. Thus, the best price is at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would pay $17.69.

Bo Nix Over 27.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

Nix has averaged 20 fantasy points per game over the last six games and has had fewer than 15 points only once in that span, which means the rookie has developed a relatively high floor each week.

Nix’s four touchdown runs lead the team, and he faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Atlanta’s vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks is a big reason it has allowed a top-10 fantasy quarterback in four of the last six weeks.

The fact that the Falcons have allowed the third-most passing yards and touchdowns to quarterbacks since Week 6 made backing Nix’s Over of 1.5 passing touchdowns (at +150 odds) tempting. 

Instead, I am backing his rushing yards total as a four-star play, as he has soared over this projected total with 36 or more rushing yards three times in the last five games.

NFL game predictions for Week 11

Six-point teaser parlay:  Dolphins -1 and Steelers +9 (-120 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%

For the first time this season we are advising a teaser play as part of our NFL picks.

Miami’s defense was dominant in its Monday Night Football win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Dolphins recorded a season-best four sacks, allowed zero touchdowns, and tied for a season-high with two takeaways. They also held Matthew Stafford to a 35 Total QBR, his second-lowest of the season.

Using the six points on the Dolphins side of the teaser allows us to bring the spread down from a touchdown, so essentially we are backing Miami to beat Las Vegas straight up.

Meanwhile, it seems like a no-brainer to tease Pittsburgh from +3 to +9 at home against Baltimore. The Steelers are 7-1 in the last eight meetings with the Ravens, and all of those games have been decided by seven or fewer points.

I made this wager at DraftKings because it was the only top sports betting site where the Dolphins were seven-point favorites instead of -7.5. It also started with low -102 odds to originally back the Steelers at +3.

Chiefs-Bills Under 46.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

Exclusive: Up to $2,500 No Sweat First Bet

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $500+. Standard offer (bet $5, win $150 in bonus bets) available. Can only claim 1 offer. T&Cs apply. Not valid in NY or IL. 

Claim $2,500

The Over is 7-0 in Buffalo’s last seven home games, but the total has stayed Under the projected total between these teams by 10-plus points in each of the two regular-season meetings between these teams over the last two years. 

These two defenses rank in the top nine of the league in scoring, while Kansas City has the NFL’s fourth-best total defense.

And while Patrick Mahomes is off to the worst statistical start through nine games in his career by several metrics, Josh Allen’s four interceptions are tied for the third-most in the league since Week 8. In addition, Allen has been off-target on 20% of his passes and has a 56 Total QBR over the last three games after posting a 12-0 TD-INT ratio and 78 Total QBR through the first seven games.

Allen is already without Keon Coleman and may also be without Amari Cooper (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (knee). If Buffalo needs to rely on the run to move the ball, Kansas City ranks third in run defense DVOA.

I am headed to FanDuel for this wager, as it is the only top sports betting site offering a total of 46.5 (DraftKings, by comparison, is a full-point lower at 45.5).

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)