March Madness Betting Trends: NCAA Tournament 2023
Now that we finally have our bracket, it is time to dive into all 68 teams slated to participate in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Read on for our best March Madness betting trends.
Let the madness begin. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is set, and it is time to figure out who will be cutting down the nets. Historical trends tell us that our champion will be one of the top six teams on Ken Pomeroy's overall ratings heading into the tourney. That would mean only Houston, UCLA, Alabama, UConn, Tennessee, and Texas have a chance of winning a title.
But March Madness has always been more than just figuring out who our champion will be. We need the March Madness upsets and surprise Final Four runs just as much. Before all that, let's get to know all 68 teams by looking at an important tidbit regarding each squad that made the Big Dance.
Here are our best March Madness betting trends (all stats and information courtesy of a variety of analytical sites such as KenPom, BartTorvik, Synergy Sports Technology, ShotQuality, EvanMiya, and Haslametrics).
March Madness betting trends: South region
No. 1 seed: Alabama
It has been 10 years since the No. 1 overall seed won the NCAA Tournament, but the Crimson Tide are hoping to break that drought with a freshman-led team that lives by the 3-ball. The No. 1 overall seed for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, Alabama is second by the consensus March Madness odds and is rock solid on the defensive end. The Crimson Tide pace the 2023 field in 2-point defense and sitting third in 3-point defense.
No. 2 seed: Arizona
With a quick tempo and efficient offense, Arizona is unsurprisingly 18-16 to the Over and cleared the point total in seven of its last 10 games. The Wildcats rank third in effective field goal percentage, running their offense through Azuolas Tubelis and his scoring average of 19.8 points per game.
No. 3 seed: Baylor
Led by the best backcourt in the country, the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The problem is, there are 103 teams better than them on the defensive end. Despite this dichotomy, Baylor went just 17-15 to the Over this season.
No. 4 seed: Virginia
Even with a national title on his resume, Cavaliers head coach Tony Bennett is 10-15 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament and 9-12 as a favorite. He is 3-8 over his last 11 tourney contests, and his squad seems ripe for the picking against a talented Furman program in the opening round.
No. 5 seed: San Diego State
The Aztecs have a 6-14 overall record in their 14 trips to the NCAA Tournament and have not won a game in the Big Dance since 2015. San Diego State is 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which has led to an 18-14 clip to the Under. The Mountain West champs have a chance of making it to the second weekend for just the third time in program history.
No. 6 seed: Creighton
A popular preseason dark horse, Creighton didn’t meet expectations and went 16-17 against the spread this year. The Bluejays were underdogs only five times this season and covered in two of those games.
No. 7 seed: Missouri
First-year head coach Dennis Gates has the Tigers dancing after they went 12-21 a season ago. Missouri’s 10th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and quick pace have led to an 18-15 clip to the Over. Mizzou cleared the point total in three of its last four games.
No. 8 seed: Maryland
Head coach Kevin Willard has Maryland dancing in his first season at the helm, but don’t expect a deep run based on this team’s home-road splits. The Terrapins went 16-1 at home, but 5-11 in all other games this season. Per Haslametrics, Maryland's away-from-home rating of -1.84 ranked 304th in the nation.
No. 9 seed: West Virginia
WVU ranks 334th in the country in inefficient 3-point shooting, which helps explain why ShotQuality has graded six of its losses as wins based on the shots taken in the game. If perimeter shots are falling, head coach Bob Huggins’ squad can make a run. But it might be better to just bet West Virginia's totals in the tourney, as it went 21-12 to the Over this season.
No. 10 seed: Utah State
Don’t leave the Aggies open this weekend. Utah State is 12th in the country in effective field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage. Head coach Ryan Odom’s team went 20-13 to the Over this year, including 9-3 when both teams had equal rest.
No. 11 seed: NC State
The one thing you can count on with the Wolfpack is that they are going to take care of the ball. Only two teams in college basketball have a better turnover rate than NC State, which has lost three of its last four games.
No. 12 seed: College of Charleston
The College of Charleston earned its first AP Poll ranking in 20 years earlier this season, and justified its standing by winning the CAA. The Cougars will be a trendy March Madness upset pick, and for good reason. They take the ninth-most 3-pointers in the country (47.4%) and knock down 33.3% of them.
No. 13 seed: Furman
Only one team in all of college basketball has a better 2-point shooting percentage than Furman, which is making 59.1% of such shots this season. The Paladins are dancing for the first time since 1980, and could be a team to back on the spread in the opening round after they went 18-13 ATS this season.
No. 14 seed: UC Santa Barbara
The Gauchos are top 40 in frequency at the rim, ranking in the 96th percentile on such shots via Synergy. Don't be surprised if UC Santa Barbara gives Baylor a game early Friday afternoon, as head coach Scott Drew's current squad lacks his usual rim protection.
No. 15 seed: Princeton
Princeton is back in the March Madness field for the first time since 2017 after winning the Ivy League tournament and regular-season crown. The Tigers do a good job of keeping teams off the offensive glass, ranking ninth with a defensive rebound rate of 22.8%.
No. 16 seed: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
After losing in the First Four last year, the Islanders are searching for their first win in the tourney. Texas A&M Corpus Christi ranks second in the nation with an 80% clip from the free throw line, so you can count on this team to hit its freebies.
No. 16 seed: Southeast Missouri State
Ranking in the top 10 in adjusted tempo this year, the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks went 21-12 to the Over and cleared the point total by an average of six points per game. SEMO is 30th in free throw rate, so expect a lot of trips to the line during the program’s first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2000.
Will you be making a bracket this year? Check out our guide on how to fill out a March Madness bracket, download our free printable March Madness bracket, and tail our expert March Madness bracket predictions. Then, check out these free March Madness bracket challenges.
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March Madness betting trends: East region
No. 1 seed: Purdue
As the final No. 1 seed, the Boilermakers are flying a bit under the radar as much as one team can when featuring a 7-foot-4 big man. Zach Edey, who is averaging a double-double with 22.3 points and 12.8 rebounds per game, led the country with a Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) of 6.91 at EvanMiya.com.
No. 2 seed: Marquette
Since leaving VCU, head coach Shaka Smart is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in the NCAA Tournament including last year’s 95-63 loss to North Carolina in the opening round. But this year’s Golden Eagles won the Big East regular-season crown and tournament title after being picked to finish ninth in the preseason. Point guard Tyler Kolek will be must-see TV this March.
No. 3 seed: Kansas State
After being picked to finish last in the Big 12, first-year head coach Jerome Tang led Kansas State to 23 wins and a top-three finish in the league. The biggest concern for the Wildcats is their play away from home. K-State went 16-1 straight up and 13-4 against the spread at home, but 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS in road games.
No. 4 seed: Tennessee
Tennessee has made it past the first weekend just once under head coach Rick Barnes, who is 8-19 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. The Volunteers do rank No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but their offense is limited and took a big hit after losing their best player in Zakai Zeigler to a season-ending injury.
No. 5 seed: Duke
Coach K might be gone, but Jon Scheyer has the Blue Devils on a nine-game win streak and playing their best ball at the right time. The biggest difference with this team is on the defensive end, as Duke ranks 24th in adjusted efficiency. As such, the Blue Devils are 20-13-1 to the Under.
No. 6 seed: Kentucky
It has been four years since head coach John Calipari won a game in the NCAA Tournament, as last year’s opening-round loss to Saint Peter’s is still fresh in all of our minds. Despite recent results, Calipari is 31-23-3 ATS in the tourney and the Wildcats could be a dark horse in a wide-open region.
No. 7 seed: Michigan State
January, February, Izzo. Or not? Head coach Tom Izzo is 22-22-2 against the spread during the NCAA Tournament. He has covered only one number in his last four games, dating back to the 2019 championship game. The Spartans will live and die by the 3-ball, as they shoot at the fourth-best clip (39.5%) in the country from long range.
No. 8 seed: Memphis
With point guard Kendric Davis leading the show and head coach Penny Hardaway at the helm, Memphis has the recipe to do well in March. The Tigers topped Houston in the AAC championship game on Selection Sunday and are 9-2 since early February, which is why they have a momentum ranking of 17th at Haslametrics.
No. 9 seed: Florida Atlantic
After rolling through the Conference USA with an 18-2 record, Florida Atlantic is relatively even on both sides of the floor. The Owls rank in the 30s in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It is why they had the fourth-best cover rate in college hoops this year at 21-10-1.
No. 10 seed: USC
As is usually the case with USC, this year’s roster has a strong interior presence. The Trojans rank fifth in average height, which is probably why they have the second-best 2-point defense (42.4%) in the nation.
No. 11 seed: Providence
Ending the year on a three-game skid, Providence ranks 322nd in the momentum metric at Haslametrics. The Friars covered only one spread in their last five games. Despite recent results, Providence has plenty of punch on the offensive end with an adjusted efficiency ranking of 16th.
No. 12 seed: Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts, which hasn’t lost since Jan. 9, carries the nation’s longest active win streak (17) into the tourney. Basketball fans should remember the Golden Eagles, who made it to the Sweet 16 two years ago and still have senior guard Max Abmas leading the way. They will be a trendy cinderella March Madness pick this week.
No. 13 seed: Louisiana
The Ragin’ Cajun run through big man Jordan Brown, who ranks 56th in the country in usage rating this season. Brown is averaging 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game and has played a pivotal role in the program’s first tourney berth since 2014.
No. 14 seed: Montana State
The Bobcats are dancing for the second year in a row after capturing another Big Sky title. Montana State ranks fifth in the nation in free throw rate, which makes a large spread in the first round enticing after this team went 19-11-2 ATS this season.
No. 15 seed: Vermont
The Catamounts pushed Arkansas in a four-point loss during last year's opening-round tilt, and are back to finish the job after winning the American East again. It is important to note that this year’s Vermont team is 57 spots worse on KenPom’s overall ratings. With a 3-6 clip as an underdog this season, Vermont isn’t the most appealing date to this dance.
No. 16 seed: Texas Southern
The market has steamed Texas Southern of late, and it is easy to see why. The Tigers have covered the spread in three straight games, beating the number by an average of 6.6 points en route to winning the SWAC.
No. 16 seed: Fairleigh Dickinson
Despite losing the Northeast Conference championship game to Merrimack, Fairleigh Dickinson made the tournament due to an NCAA rule that prevents teams from qualifying within a four-year transition to Division I. The Knights rank 361st in adjusted defensive efficiency out of 363 teams, but they actually went 14-15-1 to the Over.
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March Madness betting trends: Midwest region
No. 1 seed: Houston
Ranked as the No. 1 team on KenPom for much of the year, head coach Kelvin Sampson's squad has a chance to win a national title in Houston. The Cougars are top five in both 2-point defense and 3-point defense, as this group can be suffocating on that end of the floor.
No. 2 seed: Texas
The Longhorns are playing their best ball when it matters most, as they enter the tourney on a four-game win streak after blasting Kansas in the Big 12 championship game. Since the calendar flipped to March, Texas has a T-Rank of No. 2 in the country (via BartTorvik) and paces college basketball in adjusted defensive efficiency.
No. 3 seed: Xavier
Head coach Sean Miller’s squad covered just one number in the last seven NCAA Tournament games at Arizona, but he has led Xavier to the tourney in his first year at the helm. The Musketeers are third in the country in 3-point percentage (39.5%), and the Over is 14-6-1 when they have two or three days of rest before a game.
No. 4 seed: Indiana
The Hoosiers went 15-16-2 against the spread this season, but all 15 of their covers took place at home where they went 15-2 ATS. Senior big man Trayce Jackson-Davis is a monster, averaging 20.8 points and 11 rebounds per contest. But the key to Indiana’s run will be its guard play and Jalen Hood-Schifino in particular.
No. 5 seed: Miami
The Hurricanes won 25 games this season and have a talented backcourt capable of repeating last year’s Elite Eight run. Ranking 28th in D-I experience, the Hurricanes are explosive on offense and the market knows it. They went 14-17-1 to the Over.
No. 6 seed: Iowa State
As a No. 11 seed last year, Iowa State made it all the way to the Sweet 16. The Cyclones, who force opponents in the second-highest turnover rate this season, certainly figure to be a tough out once again this March.
No. 7 seed: Texas A&M
If guard play is truly key in March, the Aggies have a good one in Wade Taylor IV. The sophomore led Texas A&M to the SEC title game, averaging 16.5 points and four assists per game. Texas A&M is top six in offensive rebound rate, but a 32.8% clip from long range leaves a lot to be desired.
No. 8 seed: Iowa
The Hawkeyes scored a lot of points this season, averaging 80.2 points per game, leading to a 19-13 clip to the Over. Head coach Fran McCaffery is just 6-9 ATS in the tourney, failing to cover in each of the last three games. Iowa hasn’t made it to the second weekend since 1999.
No. 9 seed: Auburn
Head coach Bruce Pearl’s Tigers struggled away from home, with a 193rd ranking in non-home games via Haslametrics. Fortunately for Auburn, it will be playing in Birmingham during the opening weekend. Pearl is 13-12-1 ATS in the tournament, but 7-2 as an underdog.
No. 10 seed: Penn State
With All-American Jalen Pickett leading the way, Penn State made it to the Big Ten championship game as the No. 10 seed. The Nittany Lions are 10-3 when Pickett scores 20 or more points, a key to how far this ride will go during their first trip to the tourney since 2011.
No. 11 seed: Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are elite on the defensive end, where they rank sixth in adjusted efficiency. They struggle at putting the ball through the hoop, as evidenced by their 3-point percentage of 26.6% that is 363rd in the country. Unsurprisingly, Mississippi State went 20-13 to the Under this year.
No. 11 seed: Pittsburgh
After being picked to finish last in the ACC, the Panthers are dancing for the first time since 2016. They have lost three of their last four games, which cost them a shot at winning the ACC title. Pittsburgh went 22-10-1 ATS with a 21-12 clip to the Over.
No. 12 seed: Drake
For the first time since 2008, Drake won the Missouri Valley Tournament to reach the Big Dance. The Bulldogs, who rank top five in the country in defensive rebounding this season, are actually 6-5 in the NCAA Tournament and earned a First Four win over Wichita State during their last visit in 2021.
No. 13 seed: Kent State
The Golden Flashes have the formula to be this year's Cinderella team. They rank in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency, are led by a point guard, and have a roster that ranks in the top 60 in average Division I experience. After going 20-11-1 ATS this year, make sure to take notice of Kent State.
No. 14 seed: Kennesaw State
The Owls were a one-win team three years ago, but are now headed to the NCAA Tournament for the first time as a Division I program after winning the ASUN tournament. KSU is the first team since BYU in 2001 to advance to the NCAA Tournament less than five years after a season with one or zero wins.
No. 15 seed: Colgate
After winning the Patriot League for the fourth time in five years, Colgate is still searching for its first win in the NCAA Tournament. The Raiders are 1-10 against Quad 1 opponents since 2018, posting a T-Rank of 335th in such meetings. Simply put, their style of play has not worked against top competition.
No. 16 seed: Northern Kentucky
The Norse are a difficult team to prepare for due to their matchup zone and their slow style of play (358th in adjusted tempo). But perhaps it might be better to look at backing this team in the first half, as Northern Kentucky outscored its opponents by an average margin of nine points in the opening stanza during its run through the Horizon League.
March Madness betting trends: West region
No. 1 seed: Kansas
The Jayhawks are led by the best coach in the game in Bill Self, who guided them to another outright regular-season crown in the Big 12. Give him time to prepare for an opponent, and he will come up with a strong game plan. But on these short turnarounds (Round of 32 and Elite Eight), Self is just 11-15 ATS with two days between games in the NCAA Tournament.
No. 2 seed: UCLA
Injuries could prevent the Bruins from cutting down the nets, but they are the top-ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency and that is key to winning games in March. UCLA went 18-16 to the Under this year, including 5-3 with one day off.
No. 3 seed: Gonzaga
In unfamiliar territory, Gonzaga is flying a bit under the radar this March after not being a No. 1 seed. The Bulldogs, who crushed Saint Mary’s in the WCC title game last time out, pace the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Over has hit in eight of Gonzaga’s last 10 games, five of which cleared the point total by double-digits.
No. 4 seed: UConn
Among the top teams in college basketball, UConn performed the best against the spread with a 20-10-1 clip. The Huskies were 10-0-1 in nonconference games, so they have to like the idea of getting out of Big East play. UConn leads the country in offensive rebound rate at 39.2%.
No. 5 seed: Saint Mary's
At No. 11 in KenPom’s overall ratings, this year’s version of the Gaels is the best they have been under head coach Randy Bennett. This team hangs its hat on the defensive end with a top-nine ranking while also playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation.
No. 6 seed: TCU
In a season marred by injuries, TCU is a trendy dark horse to make a deep run. While the Horned Frogs rank in the 99th percentile in transition offense, they are also 321st in 3-point percentage. TCU went 16-16-1 ATS this year, but half of those covers came after a loss.
No. 7 seed: Northwestern
The Wildcats have lost four of their last five games heading into the tournament. They still finished second in the Big Ten conference, which mostly speaks to how wild that league was this year. Northwestern's 12th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency should give a team fits this weekend.
No. 8 seed: Arkansas
Coming off back-to-back Elite Eight runs, the Razorbacks should always be taken seriously at this stage under head coach Eric Musselman, who is 13-6 straight up in the postseason. Arkansas is the eighth-best team in transition and recently returned guard Nick Smith Jr. (future NBA lottery pick) back in the lineup.
No. 9 seed: Illinois
Head coach Brad Underwood hasn't covered a spread in the NCAA Tournament since 2019, failing to beat the number in each of the last three games. Illinois went 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season. When the Fighting Illini are on, they can beat anyone and we saw that during a win over UCLA in November.
No. 10 seed: Boise State
The market eventually caught up to the Broncos, who covered in just three of their last 13 games. Boise State went 7-3-1 as an underdog this year, which bodes well for head coach Leon Rice’s squad during the opening weekend.
No. 11 seed: Arizona State
Thanks to a miraculous buzzer beater in a win over Arizona on Feb. 25, the Sun Devils are dancing for the first time since 2019. Bobby Hurley is 1-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, which included a pair of blowout losses with ASU. Arizona State sits sixth in 2-point defense, allowing teams to shoot 43.8% on such shots.
No. 11 seed: Nevada
The Wolf Pack have lost three games in a row and four of their last six, to rank 272nd in momentum at Haslametrics. Nevada is 79.2% from the line, good for sixth in the sport. Opposing teams should focus on not sending the Wolf Pack to the charity stripe.
No. 12 seed: VCU
If not for winning a weak A10, the Rams would have likely been left out of the tourney. Fortunately, head coach Mike Rhoades’ squad is here and ready to wreak havoc with a turnover rate of 24.1% that sits sixth in the country.
No. 13 seed: Iona
Head coach Rick Pitino has the Gaels humming, as they have the third-longest active win streak (14) entering this week's action. Iona was an underdog only once this season but did come through as a 16.5-point dog against Alabama in the opening round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
No. 14 seed: Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon has won six games in a row, scoring at least 80 points in four of those outings. The Antelopes are 23rd in 3-point shooting, and their first-round matchup with Gonzaga could look more like an NBA score. Grand Canyon paces college basketball with a 24-8 clip to the Over.
No. 15 seed: UNC Asheville
The Bulldogs are riding a nine-game win streak into their first trip to the tourney in seven years after winning the Big South. With an average Division I experience of 3.12 years, only 11 rosters in the country are more experienced than this squad led by forward Drew Pember.
No. 16 seed: Howard
For the first time since 1992, the Howard men’s basketball program is dancing after winning the MEAC Tournament and regular-season title. The Bison, who rank 356th in offensive turnover rate, went 0-3 to the Over in their three conference tourney contests. All three games finished below the closing point total by at least nine points.
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