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Steve Kerr of USA Team in action as we share our favorite USA vs. Italy prediction.
Steve Kerr of USA Team in action during the Torneo Ciudad de Malaga, basketball match played between Spain and USA in Malaga, Spain. Photo by Jon Imanol Reino/NurPhoto via AFP.

It’s win or go home as USA and Italy face off in the FIBA World Cup quarterfinals. Which team will advance to the semis, and which team will fall short? Our USA vs. Italy prediction is based on the best FIBA World Cup odds.

Both USA and Italy went 4-1 in group play, and each team will try to keep its World Cup championship hopes alive with a victory on Tuesday. Heading into the knockout stage, the two teams are coming off much different results. Team USA lost a close matchup to Lithuania on Sunday, while Italy defeated Puerto Rico 73-57.

The USA will need to limit Italy’s offensive rebounds and second-chance points, and the team will need to get a more well-balanced scoring attack. Anthony Edwards led the squad comfortably with 35 points in the losing effort to Lithuania, while the remaining four starters totaled 31. Italy will need to exploit its size advantage and slow the game down to limit offensive possessions for an elite USA squad.

Here is our best USA vs. Italy prediction for Tuesday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USA vs. Italy prediction: FIBA World Cup

USA -15 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The United States has one of the smallest teams in the World Cup with just one true center on the roster in Walker Kessler, who plays few minutes. USA has used its speed, shooting, and length to make up for its size deficiency, but Lithuania was able to take full advantage Sunday by crashing the boards and handing USA its first loss of the World Cup.

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Italy has a size advantage against the USA, but it’s not as noticeable as Lithuania’s. The Lithuanian team sports a pair of seven-footers in Jonas Valanciunas and Donatas Motiejunas, but Italy’s lineup isn’t nearly as formidable from a size perspective. 

How bad was the USA's loss to Lithuania? After falling behind big in the first half, USA clawed back and cut the lead to within four in the final 30 seconds of the game. USA stole an inbounds play and missed an open 3-pointer that would have cut Lithuania’s lead to one. Despite getting crushed on the boards and facing an historic barrage of 3-pointers from the white-hot Lithuanian shooters, USA was still in it late. 

Meanwhile, Italy’s latest win was its biggest of the tournament at just 16 points over a far inferior Puerto Rican squad. Italy finished with a +34 point differential in its five games in group stage, while USA finished with a ridiculous +109. 

USA will surely be motivated after its tough loss to Lithuania, and coach Steve Kerr will have his guys ready to go from the jump. Simone Fontecchio and Italy will not be a cake-walk, but the USA is the far superior team in terms of talent. The Italians have averaged 11.4 offensive rebounds to 9.8 for the Americans, but Italy owns a marginal 39.2-39 advantage in total rebounds.

USA is the top-scoring team in the World Cup thus far with 101.4 points per game, compared to Italy’s 80.8 points per game, which ranks 20th. We won’t expect Italy to shoot historically from deep, we won’t expect Italy to out-rebound the USA, and we won’t expect USA’s starters to shrink on offense. 

It took that perfect storm for Lithuania to pull off the upset, but it won’t happen again. We’ll take the USA to win comfortably and cover the spread.

USA vs. Italy best odds

Caesars (-115)

USA -16USA -15.5-15.5USA -15USA -15.5

There isn’t much variety here, with each of our best sports betting apps offering the spread between 15 and 16 points with all but one offering the line at -115. DraftKings is the only book offering this line slightly longer at -112, but that also comes with an extra half-point. 

A Team USA victory of 16 points would result in a win at all of our featured books except DraftKings, so we’ll avoid it. A win of 15 points would result in a loss at all of our featured books except Caesars

We’ll go with the book that offers the lowest point total and the safety net to push if USA wins by exactly 15.

USA vs. Italy odds analysis

Even after its upset loss Sunday, USA is the heavy favorite in this one, with moneyline odds ranging from -1600 to -2200 at our featured books. Wagering on the USA to win this one isn’t a profitable wager, so that’s why we’re targeting the spread, which is a bit deflated due to the recent USA loss. Team USA is still the favorite to win the gold as well.

The total ranges from 175.5 to 177, with odds ranging from -110 to -115 at our best sports betting sites. USA and Lithuania combined for 214 points Sunday, but the Americans went Under 175 points in two games preceding the loss. Italy has not scored 175 in any of its World Cup games thus far.

USA vs. Italy game info

  • When: Tuesday, Sept. 5 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
  • Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila, Philippines
  • How to watch: ESPN

USA-Italy pick made 09/03/2023 at 7:35 p.m. ET.

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