NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

We're looking at our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Thursday, based on the best NBA odds.

We featured only one bet in play in our Wednesday edition of the NBA best bets, so claiming a sweep would be an exaggeration. There were supposed to be two bets originally, but Giannis Antetokounmpo opted for rest due to injury management, dampening the night a bit. Nevertheless, Kevin Durant delivered by surpassing 3.5 assists, earning us a green check mark and securing 1.10 units for the night.

Thursday's slate of games features only two matchups, as the NBA has ensured that no team plays a back-to-back for the NBA In-Season Tournament games, which are set to resume on Friday.

How will the Golden State Warriors look on Thursday with Stephen Curry sitting due to injury and Draymond Green suspended for five games after choking Rudy Gobert?

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

• Brooklyn Nets (+145) vs. Miami Heat (-175)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (-145) vs. Golden State Warriors (+120)

Thursday’s NBA best bets

• Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 assists vs. Nets (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jalen Williams Over 2.5 assists vs. Warriors (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Thursday’s NBA player props

Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 assists vs. Nets (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you're simply glancing at box scores for Lowry, you might hesitate to place this bet. Lowry recorded only three assists against the Brooklyn Nets on Nov. 1 and played just 15 minutes in his last game against the Charlotte Hornets. Allow me to explain why these statistics shouldn't worry you, and why you should seriously consider placing a bet on this assists prop for Lowry.

Yes, Lowry had only three assists against the Nets the last time they played, but he had 11 potential assists, and that was with Tyler Herro dominating the ball. Herro won't be playing on Thursday due to an injury.

Yes, Lowry played only 15 minutes in his previous game, but it isn't because he has fallen out of the rotation or anything like that. Lowry simply picked up three fouls in the first three minutes of the game and sat out the rest of the first half. He is still the Heat's primary ball handler, especially with Herro out due to injury.

Lowry is projected to have 5.2 assists on Thursday against the Nets, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -133, but it is available at FanDuel at -102. This -102 price point we are seeing from FanDuel is somewhat of a rogue price that you will want to take advantage of to maximize your edge. Most of our other best sports betting apps have the Over trading in the -115 range.

Our Zachary Hanshew thinks there will be plenty of 3-pointers on Thursday in his Nets-Heat prediction.

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Jalen Williams Over 2.5 assists vs. Warriors (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I targeted a price point of over 3.5 assists at +135 when Jalen Williams recently played against the Sacramento Kings. The equivalent of that price on a total of 2.5 assists is -167. So not only is Williams trading with a total of 2.5 now, but the juice is all the way down to -115. That's just a probability we need to attack based on what I've seen from Williams in 2023-24.

Williams recently played against the Golden State Warriors during the beginning of November, and he recorded eight assists, but take it with a grain of salt. Williams was on the ball a lot more with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missing the game due to an injury. What I do like from that game is that we saw both teams play with pace, which means more scoring and lots of assist opportunities.

Did we mention the Warriors will be without their defensive anchor in Draymond Green on Thursday too? When you lose someone who communicates as well as Green does from the backline to ensure everyone is in the proper defensive rotations, it leads to errors and easy dunks and layups for assists.

Williams is projected to record 3.2 assists on Thursday, which means we can price the Over on 2.5 assists at -147. You'll want to make this play at FanDuel to maximize your edge, as that book is trading the Over at -115. We're seeing some of our best sportsbooks with much higher juice, such as BetRivers, which is pricing the Over on 2.5 at -141.

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NBA best bets made 11/16/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

NBA betting odds pages

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)