Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction & Best Bets Today 8/21

Fresh off a marathon, four-hour game, our Guardians vs. Yankees prediction for Wednesday features an unlikely slugger and predicts a pitcher to get hit around.

Mike Spector

Last updated: August 21, 2024 2:00 PM EDT • 4 min read

Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez loses his helmet on a swing as we look at our best Guardians vs. Yankees prediction. — Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez loses his helmet on a swing in the eighth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field. Photo by: David Richard/USA TODAY Sports.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge hit back-to-back home runs for the fifth time this season for the New York Yankees on Tuesday, but it was not enough to win the series opener against the Cleveland Guardians.

I make today’s Guardians vs. Yankees prediction as the teams look to bounce back from the longest game of the MLB season last night, a four-hour and five-minute marathon. And while Soto and Judge combined for four of New York’s five RBIs last night, it is a different All-Star slugger I have my eye on in this rematch. The Yankees are -170 moneyline favorites, with first pitch from Yankee Stadium scheduled for 7:05 p.m.ET.

I am coming off a 2-1 day from Tuesday's Phillies vs. Braves prediction, and my last two full-game predictions have been spot on, including a cash with the Braves as +110 underdogs.

Guardians vs. Yankees prediction

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Guardians ML (+140) ⭐⭐⭐

The Guardians do not have as strong a pitcher on the mound as they were scheduled to, as Alex Cobb was supposed to make tonight’s start but landed on the IL with a broken nail. However, Cleveland may still benefit from sending Joey Cantillo to the mound, given New York’s struggles against southpaws.

The Yankees are 13-20 against left-handed starting pitchers and are 27 games over .500 (60-33) against righties. Plus, the Yankees are 2-5 in Nestor Cortes’ last seven starts and have lost four of his last five home starts with a -23 run differential in that span.

New York’s struggles alone against lefties suggest that the 41.67% implied probability for this wager is too low. I am taking advantage of Betway’s generous +140 odds, with which a $10 winning wager would return $14 in profits.

Odds: +140 via Betway | Implied probability: 41.67%

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Guardians vs. Yankees best bets

MLB picks made Wednesday at 7:07 a.m. ET.

Prediction: Nestor Cortes Over 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cortes struggled mightily in July, pitching to a 6.93 ERA and recording 15 or more outs in just two of his five starts. I am not ready to pronounce his struggles as over after shutting out the lowly Chicago White Sox for seven innings in his previous start.

In his last six starts against teams over .500, Cortes is 1-4 with a 6.25 ERA. He has also allowed a 69:29 fly ball to ground ball ratio, which does not play well against a Guardians lineup with an 11.5% HR/FB rate.

This is my most confident five-star play, as New York used nine pitchers in last night’s 12-inning affair. That is the first time it has used that many pitchers since Aug. 6, 2021, and Cortes should be given a much longer leash as a result.

A winning $10 wager pays out $18.33.

Odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%

Prediction: Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

Ramirez has crushed left-handed pitching this season, as his 1.106 OPS against southpaws ranks fourth among all qualified hitters. Ramirez has a .353 ISO in that split, and 32% of his RBIs have come against southpaws, which makes up just 29% of his at-bats.

The 43.48% implied probability for this wager seems low, considering Ramirez has at least one RBI in three of the previous five games and 10 of the 18 games this month. I am eager to risk $10 for this wager with the possibility of turning that into a $23 payout.

Odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%

Guardians vs. Yankees odds & game info

When: Wednesday, Aug. 21
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York
How to watch: Prime Video
Favorite: Yankees (-170 via Betway)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”