⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, April 27
One of the most homer-prone starters MLB has to offer is facing off against the power-packed Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, leading to a key opportunity through one of their lefty stars.
That's why Freddie Freeman sits atop my home run predictions today, and spending part of his evening against Chris Paddack could quickly propel him forward.
There's a path toward similar success for Jazz Chisholm Jr. against Jack Leiter as part of my MLB picks too, and ditto for Julio Rodriguez, who finds himself in the right split against a rookie.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 27
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.82u | Boasts a .571 expected slugging percentage. |
| Julio Rodriguez (+620 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.24u | Has put up an .847 OPS against lefties. |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+490 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Lefties have recorded a .931 OPS against Jack Leiter. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 3.04 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+410)
Never miss an opportunity to roll with any slugger who's facing Chris Paddock.
That's the case with Freddie Freeman tonight, and Paddack finished tied for fourth leaguewide last year with 31 home runs allowed. Little has changed through this first month of this season, as Paddack has given up five bombs across as many appearances (four starts). That's led to a bloated 6.38 ERA.
He'll bring that against Freeman, who will surely regress positively soon since his expected slugging of .571 sits far above his actual one of .442, via Baseball Savant.
📡 SBR Edge: Giving himself plenty of opportunities
Freeman is also striking out far less than career norms, with a strikeout rate that sits at 12.3%. He's been at 18% since 2015.
π₯ More home run picks today
Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+620)
Connor Prielipp will make just his second career start tonight for the Minnesota Twins. The highly touted lefty fared well in his first start, but now he'll face a hitter in Julio Rodriguez who's seeing southpaws well early this season.
Rodriguez boasts an .847 OPS against lefties, which includes clubbing both of his home runs this season. That's notably higher than his .610 against righties.
Prielipp features a slider heavily, an offering that he threw a whopping 51.2% of the time during his first outing. Rodriguez is putting up a .632 slugging percentage against sliders, according to Baseball Savant. He just went 3-for-6 at the plate with a homer on Saturday.
Jazz Chisholm to hit a home run (+490)
Similar to Paddock, never miss a chance to hop on the home run ride that is Jack Leiter.
In this case it's homer potential, but the appeal is there nonetheless with a hard-hit rate allowed from Leiter of 46.5% that sits in the 21st percentile. Alongside that, his 14.1% barrel rate is in the 11th percentile.
That's translated to an expected slugging percentage allowed of .458, and an expected ERA of 5.05. His struggles are magnified that much further against a lefty like Chisholm, as Leiter has given up a .931 OPS when facing a left-handed batter. His fly-ball rate also sits at a career-worst 36.6%.
π Best home run parlay picks today
The inclusion of Rodriguez does much of the lifting here to pump up this parlay, and he's priced far lower at some of the other best MLB betting sites. All three picks are centered around juicy pitching matchups against homer-prone starters, though the sluggers themselves are plenty capable of doing their part.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Freddie Freeman home run (+384)
- Julio Rodriguez home run (+620)
- Jazz Chisholm home run (+495)
Best odds: +20704 via DraftKings (0.05u -> 10.4u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-50-0 | -5.49 units β | -18% β |
| Home run picks | 5-30-0 | -0.35 units β | -14% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-6 | -0.50 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm not straying from my usual unit size in a volatile market. But if you're wanting to sprinkle a little more on one of these mashers to go deep, make it Freeman.
Paddock is highly vulnerable, which includes a .301 batting average allowed, and he's not far removed from giving up a .572 slugging percentage last year.
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