⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, April 28
Baseball is better when a healthy Mike Trout is sending balls to Neptune often, and he's still doing plenty of that while not slowing.
Trout leads my home run predictions today, and he gets an appealing matchup against a Chicago White Sox hurler due to regress. Overall, the likelihood of regression from opposing starting pitchers is the link between today's MLB home run picks, with Shea Langeliers and Ramon Laureano set to benefit too.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 28
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout home run (+364 via Draftkings) | 0.20u β 0.73u | Sits seventh MLB-wide with a .976 OPS. |
| Ramon Laureano home run (+440 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.88u | His barrel rate sits in the 85th percentile. |
| Shea Langeliers home run (+344 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.69u | Ranks 10th leaguewide while slugging .563, and first among catchers. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.3 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+364)
Mike Trout hasn't slowed yet, and especially not in the power department. The now healthy masher has registered three extra-base hits across his past five games, two of which have left the yard, bringing his homer total to nine.
He's still throttling baseballs nightly, with an expected slugging percentage and barrel rate that rest in the 99th percentile or higher, according to Baseball Savant. And now Trout gets to face Davis Martin, the Chicago White Sox right-hander who's due for swift regression. His hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity are both in the bottom 8% leaguewide.
📡 SBR Edge: Obliterating anything offspeed
Trout is thriving overall, but especially against anything offspeed. He's slugging .750 against offspeed pitches, and a changeup is Martin's second-most-used offering.
π₯ More home run picks today
Ramon Laureano to hit a home run (+440)
Ramon Laureano can't match Trout's underlying metrics because few hitters are right now, but he's nearly keeping up in one key category, with a barrel rate in the 85th percentile.
He's also similar to Trout in another critical area, and one that's even more important for the San Diego Padres outfielder given the pitching matchup tonight. Laureano is demolishing offspeed pitches too while slugging .833 against changeups. That pairs well with him facing the Chicago Cubs' Edward Cabrera, whose changeup is his most-used pitch, and he throws it 31.8% of the time.
Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+344)
Shea Langeliers is still sizzling while slashing .304/.361/.563 with eight home runs. He's produced three multi-hit games in his last six outings, a run that includes three extra-base hits and two homers.
He now gets to square off against the Royals' Kris Bubic, who seems due for some regression since his heater is getting tattooed so regularly. Opposing hitters have posted a .598 expected slugging percentage on a pitch he throws 42.6% of the time. His fly-ball rate is also significantly higher than last year while shifting from 19.8% to 32.4%.
Bubic takes all those signs of forthcoming doom against Langeliers, who's slugging .654 against four-seamers.
Our Mike Spector dove further into this matchup in his Royals vs. Athletics prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
All three of our home run picks today feature sluggers in matchups against pitchers who are due for a date with the regression monster, and their weakness is tied to the hitter's strength.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mike Trout home run (+364)
- Ramon Laureano home run (+434)
- Shea Langeliers home run (+335)
Best odds: +10678 via DraftKings (0.10u -> 10.7u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-54-0 | -3.53 units β | -10.5% β |
| Home run picks | 6-33-0 | -0.03 units β | -0.01% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-7 | -0.60 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm not straying from my standard approach of a 0.20-unit wager in a volatile market. But as usual, there's one batter who could be worth a little extra sprinkle, and today it's Langeliers.
Bubic has been successful despite his fastball getting hammered, and eventually a quality changeup won't keep hitters off his mediocre heater enough. His average fastball velocity sits in just the 11th percentile.
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