Blue Jays vs. Giants Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, July 8
Two All-Star starting pitchers go head-to-head in this interleague series finale as Toronto Blue Jays righty Dylan Cease opposes San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb. My Blue Jays vs. Giants prediction backs San Francisco at home, and expects Cease to have a lower ceiling for strikeouts given the Giants’ familiarity with him from his NL West days. That familiarity is also why I am backing Rafael Devers to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.
The Blue Jays are -120 betting favorites, and first pitch from Oracle Park in San Francisco is set for 3:45 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited).
⚾ Blue Jays vs. Giants picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Giants ML (+100 via Caesars) | 1u → 1u | Toronto's offense had been the worst in MLB over its last 13 games entering Tuesday |
| Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-144 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.69u | I'm selling high on the AL strikeout leader given his familiarity with the Giants |
| Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.3u | Devers is one of two current Giants hitters with an OPS of .891 or better in at least 12 at-bats against Cease |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.99 units
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🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Giants?
San Francisco has beaten two NL playoff hopefuls (Braves and Cubs) by a combined 10-to-1 in Logan Webb’s last two home starts, and I expect the righty to lead the team to another victory today.
Score prediction: Giants 4, Blue Jays 3
💰 Blue Jays vs. Giants prediction & best bet
Giants ML (+100)
After Toronto’s 10-1 loss on Monday, it fell to 3-10 in the last 13 games and moved to a season-worst seven games under .500. A light-hitting offense was the main reason, as the Blue Jays averaged an MLB-low 2.9 runs per game over that span.
I’m not panicking on Webb after a poor outing at Coors Field in his last start (seven earned runs over three innings). He still pitched to a 0.71 ERA over five June starts, and has allowed one or fewer runs while throwing seven-plus innings four of his last six home starts.
📡 SBR Edge: Webb's first hardware
Logan Webb was named National League Pitcher of the Month in June for the first time in his career, being recognized for the lowest ERA in a single month by a Giant since 2005.
🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Giants player prop bet
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-144)
Dylan Cease is a first-time All-Star and has made a real case for early consideration for the AL Cy Young Award. After his last start, he ranked first in strikeouts, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, strikeout percentage, K:BB ratio, and fWAR among all AL starting pitchers, despite ranking just 28th in innings pitched.
Cease’s first 16 starts with the Blue Jays were historic, as no other player in franchise history had more strikeouts (137) or a higher K/9 rate (13.65) in their first 16 starts with the team. But his career K/9 rate against San Francisco is “only" at 11.2, and he has matched or exceed that total against 14 other MLB teams.
San Francisco should battle, as it has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in home games against right-handed pitching this season (19.7%).
💣 Blue Jays vs. Giants home run prediction
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+520)
Rafael Devers has slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and two total extra-base hits in 12 at-bats against Cease.
Just three games ago, Devers turned in his 23rd career two-homer game, and second this season. At that time, he was batting .364 with five home runs and nine RBI during a nine-game hitting streak, and had a .311/.367/.800, with seven home runs and 11 RBI in a 12-game span.
Cease has allowed just one home run in 93 opponent plate appearances at Oracle Park. But Devers is in a great hitting split, with 15 of his 18 home runs coming off right-handed pitchers, and his OPS being 346 points better in that split than against southpaws.
🚀 Blue Jays vs. Giants same-game parlay
If the Giants are to win this series finale, it will likely need to put the bat on the ball plenty against Dylan Cease. The righty has nine or more strikeouts in six of his last nine starts, but San Francisco has been one of the best teams at avoiding high strikeout rates in this split. To give this SGP a better chance of cashing, I am swapping Devers' home run wager for him to record a hit, which he had done in nine straight games prior to Monday's 0-for-2 effort.
💵 Blue Jays vs. Giants SGP picks
- Giants ML (-102)
- Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-144)
- Rafael Devers to record 1+ hits (-126)
Best odds: +502 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.5u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 181-263-1 | +53.75 units ✅ | +18.9% ✅ |
| Game picks | 73-49-1 | +17.77 units ✅ | +11.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 108-214 | +35.98 units ✅ | +22.4% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Blue Jays vs. Giants: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Dylan Cease has allowed the second-lowest OPS (.572) and tied for the second-lowest opponents' batting average (.201) in franchise history through a pitcher's first 16 starts with the Blue Jays. Therefore, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Under, though I remain more confident in Webb's ability to shut down the light-hitting Toronto lineup to lead his team to victory.
From a home run odds perspective, I was always going to look to a Giants slugger, as Webb has the fifth-lowest HR/9 rate (0.67) among qualified starters. And Cease has plus-money odds to back his strikeout total Under 6.5, but I'm more comfortable laying the juice at the higher number of 7.5.
📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Giants odds
The best MLB betting sites have shaded their moneyline odds in favor of the Blue Jays, likely as a direct response to yesterday's decisive 9-3 victory. This is a case of reverse line movement, as the slight majority (55%) of the early wagers have backed the home underdogs.
The total is currently at 7 across the market. BetMGM, bet365, and DraftKings were the only best sports betting sites to lower to 6.5 at any point, but Over backers weighed in quickly after any of that movement and pushed the line back to 7. Despite this being the lowest total on the MLB slate, the Under is the more popular play, attracting 58% of wagers.
📈 Blue Jays vs. Giants betting trends
| Blue Jays | Statistic | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 43-49 | W-L record | 38-53 |
| 43-49 | Run line record | 40-51 |
| 48-43-1 | O/U record | 43-42-6 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 4.13 | Team ERA | 4.52 |
| .244 | Team batting avg. | .256 |
| .686 | OPS | .730 |
🚑 Blue Jays vs. Giants injuries
📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Giants
- Date: Wednesday, July 8
- First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Oracle Park (San Francisco)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Blue Jays starter: Dylan Cease (5-4, 2.79 ERA)
- Giants starter: Logan Webb (5-6, 3.66 ERA)
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