MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Wednesday, July 8
Happy Roki Sasaki day to all who celebrate! Which is certainly us while targeting him as much as possible in my home run predictions today.
Mickey Moniak, the Rockies' lefty slugger with a 1.004 OPS against righties, is our choosen weapon today against Sasaki. But that's just one of the three appealing matchups I've unearthed as part of my MLB home run picks, with two other well-established home run producers in Pete Alonso and Juan Soto leading us off.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 8
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso home run (+290 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.58u | Isn't far removed from a .947 OPS in June. |
| Juan Soto home run (+307 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.61u | Boasts the second-best OPS leaguewide at .985. |
| Mickey Moniak home run (+352 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Roki Sasaki remains a homer factory, with three given up in has last outing. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.89 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+290)
Pete Alonso is one of MLB's foremost fastball destroyers, and that's showing up now in his .598 slugging percentage against four-seamers and a 63.5% hard-hit rate.
That ability to send those pitches back just as quickly in the opposite direction has contributed a lot to his 19 homers, and an average exit velocity that sits in the 97th percentile.
Coming at him with a substandard fastball is unwise, but that's what the Cubs' Colin Rea seems poised to do tonight. He throws his four-seamer 37% of the time to right-handed hitters, and it comes with a .324 batting average against.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Hasn't hit his peak yet?
Alonso is doing his typical ball-mashing thing thus far, but there's still room for positive regression. His expected slugging percentage of .511 sits a fair bit higher than the first baseman's actual mark of .464, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+307)
Juan Soto continues to be the only watchable part of an atrocious Mets team, and that's been especially true lately. He's clubbed three home runs across six games to begin July, leading to a scorching 1.124 OPS over the past week.
His underlying metrics are still glowing across the board, most notably an expected slugging percentage of .614 that sits third MLB-wide. Like Alonso, he's also annihilating fastballs while posting a .732 slugging percentage against heaters.
He'll carry that into an evening against the Royals' putrid relievers. Kansas City is going with a bullpen day, and the team's unit sits second-last with a 5.22 bullpen ERA.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB player props for Wednesday
Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today or his best strikeout props today if you're looking to cash in more, and Mike Spector's Blue Jays vs. Giants prediction.
Home run pick: Mickey Moniak (+352)
Sasaki is really good at throwing a baseball hard and fast. The problem, at least partly, is a lack of effectiveness with his other offerings, and hitters have no reason to stop taking vicious cuts at his heater.
The results have been gruesome, and the Rockies' Mickey Moniak with his 83rd percentile barrel rate could be the latest to benefit. Sasaki's ERA sits at 5.40, up from 4.46 last year, due to a 2.0 HR/9 and hitters punishing his fastball regularly, which is a rather significant problem because he throws it 43.2% of the time.
His four-seamer is getting tagged with a .598 slugging percentage allowed, and a 60.2% hard-hit rate. He's given up 17 home runs, seven of which have come over Sasaki's last four starts.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Alonso home run (+290)
- Juan Soto home run (+307)
- Mickey Moniak home run (+352)
Best odds: +7074 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.41u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56-158-2 | -2.39 units β | -3.0% β |
| Home run picks | 32-104-0 | +1.01 units β | 0.03% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-37 | +0.70 units β | +1.08% β |
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