What Will the Announcers Say During Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway? Kalshi Market Breakdown
With Jon Anik doing play-by-play, along with Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier providing color commentary, we break down what the announcers will say during Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway.
The most likely words that will be said - according to prediction market apps - are "Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out," "Decision / Judge," and "Train / Trained / Training," all at 67% probability. But we don't want to pay that much for a contract, so let's break down the Kalshi market and find our best prediction ahead of UFC 329 on Saturday, with the main card beginning at 9 p.m. ET (Paramount+).
📊 What will the announcers say during McGregor vs. Holloway?
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Contracts for what the announcers will say
| Phrase/word | Probability | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out | 67% | 61¢ |
| Decision / Judge | 67% | 60¢ |
| Train / Trained / Training | 67% | 67¢ |
| Tired / Tiring | 64% | 64¢ |
| Blood / Bloody / Bloodied | 57% | 62¢ |
| Championship | 52% | 52¢ |
| Triangle | 48% | 23¢ |
| Slip / Slips / Slipped | 42% | 43¢ |
| Choke / Choked / Chokehold | 39% | 39¢ |
| What a Fight | 39% | 38¢ |
| Legal / Illegal | 23% | 25¢ |
| Lights Out | 16% | 16¢ |
| Dana | 21% | 21¢ |
| Event does not qualify* | 6% | 5¢ |
*Check market rules for the event not qualifying.
There's a three-way tie between "Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out," "Decision / Judge," and "Train / Trained / Training" for the most probable phrase/word the announcers will say.
The fourth-most likely outcome is "Tired / Tiring," followed by "Blood / Bloody / Bloodied" at No. 5. The only remaining phrase/word with a higher-than-50% probability is "Championship."
More than $37,000 in volume has already cleared in this market, and while liquidity ranges from $20 to $250 for the lowest asks, there are thousands of dollars in liquidity available if you're willing to buy more expensive contracts.
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🎯 Best prediction for what announcers will say during McGregor vs. Holloway
Since over $9,000,000 has already been traded in the main market for McGregor vs. Holloway 2, I'll be using the probability from there to predict what the announcers will say. After all, more liquidity means the market is more efficient.
Holloway has a 65% chance to beat McGregor on Saturday - with over $300,000 in liquidity available at that price - and since Holloway's most likely path to victory is via KO/TKO, my favorite contract is buying No on the announcers saying "Decision / Judge."
Best prediction: The announcers will not say "Decision / Judge" (43¢)
💵 More UFC 329 predictions
Our Andrew Reid also expects a KO/TKO as he breaks down the McGregor vs. Holloway odds.
📺 How to watch Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2
- Date: Saturday, July 11
- Main card: 9 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- Streaming: Paramount+
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