Yankees vs. Rays Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 8)
Tampa Bay is continuing to inch further from New York in the AL East, and the Yankees vs. Rays win probability from the prediction market apps forecasts the host's lead will increase tonight.
The Rays enter with a four-game advantage over the Yankees. Tampa is the narrow 52% favorite to win, though that comes after climbing up sharply from an opening win probability of just 39%.
It'll be Gerrit Cole against Shane McClanahan as the mound matchup when the first pitch flies at 6:40 p.m. ET (Prime Video), and the former's issues are propelling Tampa's probability rise.
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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Rays? Live MLB win probability
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There's been significant movement in this market amid nearly $210,000 in betting volume, with the favorite changing and the AL East-leading Rays surging upward 12 percentage points.
That's no doubt due in part to New York's continued spiral. The Yankees have won just two of their last 12 games, a stretch in which they're averaging three runs scored per outing.
Aaron Judge will always be sorely missed whenever he's absent. But the 2026 version of the Yankees seems to really yearn for him when he's gone, especially with Giancarlo Stanton out too. Toss in Cody Bellinger going from masher to mess depending on where he's playing (a 1.013 OPS at home that drops to .550 on the road), and scoring has become a challenge.
So yes, it's unsurprising to see the Rays rising fast as the favorite. Particularly with McClanahan on the hill for them tonight against a lesser post-injury version of Cole. The southpaw McClanahan boasts a lethal changeup that baffles righties, and it comes with a .143 slugging percentage allowed, according to Baseball Savant.
My prediction: Rays win. The Yankees' lineup features five hitters with an expected batting average sitting at .240 or below.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Yankees vs. Rays?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | 25% |
| Jonathan Aranda | 14% |
| Cody Bellinger | 13% |
We're eight starts into the post-injury Cole experience, and the results have been mostly rocky.
His strikeouts are down from before his year-plus-long absence (9.4 K/9 to 8.6), and the loud contact that leaves the ballpark is way up (1.0 HR/9 to 1.7). He's missing few barrels, with a whiff rate that rests in just the fourth percentile.
The two leading sources of power from the Rays therefore lead this market, with Junior Caminero and his 26 homers (tied for fourth MLB-wide) sitting at the top while getting a 25% chance of going deep. His teammate Jonathan Aranda is in second at 14%.
The latter has been in a rut to begin July, but the lefty's effectiveness against righties makes him a prime candidate to take advantage of Cole's sputtering return. Aranda is posting an .889 slugging percentage against righties as opposed to a .671 against a southpaw.
My prediction: Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run. Lefties are slugging .489 against Cole's fastball this season, far higher than the .235 when we last saw him in 2024. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Yankees vs. Rays?
The chances of a first-inning run have been hovering between about a 49% and 47% probability.
That seems a touch high at first given the Yankees' recent offensive ineptitude. However, Cole's struggles have been frequently showing up early against the top of the order, as he's allowed a first-inning run in three of his past four starts. That tends to happen when your fly-ball rate rises notably, as Cole's has from 27% in 2024 to 33.3% now.
And despite his overall brilliance, McClanahan has been vulnerable in the first inning too, giving up four runs in that frame across as many starts recently.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The Yankees boast MLB's ninth-best YRFI record at 49-42, and the Rays are also a quality team in that regard at home with a record of 26-19. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from MLB expert Dustin Saracini, and his best strikeout props today.
📊 Yankees vs. Rays win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 48% | 61% | ↓ 12% |
| Rays | 52% | 39% | ↑ 12% |
📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Rays
- Date: Wednesday, July 8
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, FLA)
- TV: Prime Video
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (3-3, 4.01 ERA)
- Rays starter: Shane McClanahan (7-5, 3.05 ERA)
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