Phillies vs. Reds Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 8)

The Phillies and Reds meet today in the second game of a three-game set. Ahead of first pitch from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN), let's break down the Phillies vs. Reds win probability on prediction market apps.

The Reds have a 56% win probability on Kalshi, but I expected it to be higher with RHP Chase Burns on the mound for Cincinnati.

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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Reds? Live MLB win probability

The Reds have a 56% win probability, and over $150,000 has already cleared in this market. The Phillies originally opened with a 52.2% win probability on Sunday night, but money has come in on the Reds as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Reds are available at 58¢, with over $190,000 in liquidity at that price.

The Phillies snapped a two-game losing skid with a 4-1 win over the Reds in Tuesday's series opener. Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (1-for-4, 2 RBIs) hit a two-run shot in the third inning, his MLB-leading 31st homer of the season.

Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez (1-for-4, 1 RBI) drove in the Reds' lone run with a homer in the seventh inning. The Reds fell to 2-7 in their last nine games with the loss and will drop their third straight series unless they win the next two games.

My prediction: Reds win (58¢). Burns being 10-1 on the season - despite the Reds' 41-49 record - speaks to how dominant he has been. He has the sixth-shortest NL Cy Young odds and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Phillies vs. Reds?

It should come as no surprise that the MLB leader in home runs this season, Schwarber, has the highest probability of going yard today. Schwarber's 32% home run probability is among the highest I've seen all season (Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani is usually between 25% and 31%).

First baseman Bryce Harper is next in line, with a 22% home run probability. Harper has 20 homers on the season but has not hit a bomb in seven straight games. Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz has the third-highest probability at 20%, followed by Phillies shortstop Trea Turner at 13%.

My prediction: Trea Turner to hit a home run (13¢). Not only is Turner slugging .622 across his last eight games, but he already homered against Burns earlier this season on May 19. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Phillies vs. Reds?

Over $22,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 53% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 54¢, you can instantly get filled for over $37,000.

The Phillies have had a first-inning run scored in 53% of their games, while the Reds have seen a run in the first inning during 51% of theirs. Burns hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his last five starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (47¢). While you usually want to back the Phillies to score a run in the first inning, Burns changes everything. He has been dominant all season, but especially at the beginning of his starts. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Phillies vs. Reds win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Reds

• Date: Wednesday, July 8
• First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati)
• TV: ESPN
• Phillies starter: Undecided
• Reds starter: Chase Burns (10-1, 2.40 ERA)