Skip to main content

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks & Odds: Will L.A. Survive NLDS Game 3?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 11, 2023 5:09 PM EDT • 3 min 13 sec read.

J.D. Martinez of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a single as we make our best Dodgers-Diamondbacks prediction.
J.D. Martinez #28 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning in Game Two of the Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 09, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images via AFP.

The Arizona Diamondbacks lead the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-0 in the NLDS, and we have you covered with our best Dodgers-Diamondbacks prediction for Game 3 based on the best MLB odds as the series shifts to Arizona.

The Diamondbacks secured victory in both games in Los Angeles with a combined score of 15-4. They are now aiming to wrap up the series and earn their first trip to the NLCS since 2007.

The Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles each managed to lose their first two playoff games at home after a 100-win season, a feat accomplished only three times in postseason history before 2023, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Through two games this series, the Diamondbacks have overtaken the Dodgers in the World Series odds from our best sportsbooks. Starter Corbin Carroll has soared up the World Series MVP oddsboard.

Here is our best Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction for Game 3 (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction: NLDS Game 3

Over 9.5 (-115 via FanDuel, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

On paper, the Diamondbacks are not a poor matchup for Dodgers righty Lance Lynn, who allowed 44 home runs in 183 2/3 innings this year, as Arizona’s 166 home runs ranked 22nd in the regular season. However, the Diamondbacks mashed more home runs (four) than any team in the wild-card round, and they ranked 13th in slugging and wOBA and 10th in BABIP in home games this year.

Even if the Diamondbacks do not hit the ball over the fence with regularity in Game 3, they should be highly successful on the basepaths. Arizona stole the second-most bases in the regular season and looks to take advantage of Dodgers catcher Will Smith behind the plate, who threw out just 21% (19 of 91) of base-stealers this season. The Diamondbacks stole four bases in Game 2 compared to just one caught stealing, and their wheels should be in motion again.

While Los Angeles had to deal with Arizona’s elite 1-2 punch of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in the first two games, there is a significant drop-off to Brandon Pfaadt, who only recorded eight outs and allowed seven hits in Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Pfaadt was bailed out by a bullpen that threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings, but do not bank on that again, as Diamondbacks relievers ranked 21st in xFIP since Aug. 1. 

This is a four-star play, as we should see plenty of a taxed Dodgers bullpen again. This unit had to piece together 16 innings over the previous two games after their starters combined to throw just two innings. 

Choose One: $200 or $1,000 in Bonuses

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Claim Now
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!  

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks best odds

FanDuel, BetMGM, bet365 -115

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Over -118Over -115Over -115Over -120Over -115

Over backers have no choice but to pay extra juice at all five of our best sportsbooks, but FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 offer the best value at -115 odds. BetRivers is the only sportsbook offering a total of 10 runs at the moment, but it would be a no-play for us at that higher line.

The Dodgers have hit the Over in 50 of their last 79 away games.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds analysis

None of the best sports betting sites have moved off their original totals thus far, and DraftKings is the only one to change its price from Monday night into Tuesday morning, going from -115 to -118 to back the Over.

FanDuel has the lowest moneyline odds to back the Dodgers (-144), while BetRivers is on the high end at -150. Los Angeles is 3-9 in its last 12 postseason games, while Arizona is 8-0 in its last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game info

  • When: Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 10:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Weather: Indoors

Dodgers-Diamondbacks pick made 10/10/2023 at 6:29 a.m. ET.

Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is here!

Kentucky sports betting launched on Sept. 28 - so sign up with the best Kentucky sportsbook promos now! And check out our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps!

21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

MLB betting odds pages

World Series OddsMLB Hits Leader OddsMLB RBI Leader Odds
MLB Rookie of the Year OddsMLB Wins Leader OddsMLB Win Totals
MLB MVP OddsMLB Home Run Leader OddsMLB Best Regular Season Record Odds
MLB Cy Young Award OddsMLB Strikeout Leader OddsMLB Home Run Derby Odds
MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”