The Arizona Diamondbacks lead the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-0 in the NLDS, and we have you covered with our best Dodgers-Diamondbacks prediction for Game 3 based on the best MLB odds as the series shifts to Arizona.
The Diamondbacks secured victory in both games in Los Angeles with a combined score of 15-4. They are now aiming to wrap up the series and earn their first trip to the NLCS since 2007.
The Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles each managed to lose their first two playoff games at home after a 100-win season, a feat accomplished only three times in postseason history before 2023, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Here is our best Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction for Game 3 (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction: NLDS Game 3
Over 9.5 (-115 via FanDuel, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
On paper, the Diamondbacks are not a poor matchup for Dodgers righty Lance Lynn, who allowed 44 home runs in 183 2/3 innings this year, as Arizona’s 166 home runs ranked 22nd in the regular season. However, the Diamondbacks mashed more home runs (four) than any team in the wild-card round, and they ranked 13th in slugging and wOBA and 10th in BABIP in home games this year.
Even if the Diamondbacks do not hit the ball over the fence with regularity in Game 3, they should be highly successful on the basepaths. Arizona stole the second-most bases in the regular season and looks to take advantage of Dodgers catcher Will Smith behind the plate, who threw out just 21% (19 of 91) of base-stealers this season. The Diamondbacks stole four bases in Game 2 compared to just one caught stealing, and their wheels should be in motion again.
While Los Angeles had to deal with Arizona’s elite 1-2 punch of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in the first two games, there is a significant drop-off to Brandon Pfaadt, who only recorded eight outs and allowed seven hits in Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Pfaadt was bailed out by a bullpen that threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings, but do not bank on that again, as Diamondbacks relievers ranked 21st in xFIP since Aug. 1.
This is a four-star play, as we should see plenty of a taxed Dodgers bullpen again. This unit had to piece together 16 innings over the previous two games after their starters combined to throw just two innings.
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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks best odds
Over backers have no choice but to pay extra juice at all five of our best sportsbooks, but FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 offer the best value at -115 odds. BetRivers is the only sportsbook offering a total of 10 runs at the moment, but it would be a no-play for us at that higher line.
The Dodgers have hit the Over in 50 of their last 79 away games.
None of the best sports betting sites have moved off their original totals thus far, and DraftKings is the only one to change its price from Monday night into Tuesday morning, going from -115 to -118 to back the Over.
FanDuel has the lowest moneyline odds to back the Dodgers (-144), while BetRivers is on the high end at -150. Los Angeles is 3-9 in its last 12 postseason games, while Arizona is 8-0 in its last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 10:07 p.m. ET
- Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- How to watch: TBS
- Weather: Indoors
Dodgers-Diamondbacks pick made 10/10/2023 at 6:29 a.m. ET.
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