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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Are Rangers Undervalued With Gray Pitching?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 2, 2023 9:19 AM EDT • 4 min 38 sec read.

Over half of Major League Baseball’s 15-game slate features games between divisional opponents tonight. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting sites.

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers meet for the first time since 2019. It's arguably the most anticipated opener of the 13 new series that begin on Friday, as the clubs are two of five teams in MLB history to make the playoffs in six consecutive seasons, according to MLB.com.  

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Friday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Milwaukee Brewers (-180) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+155)
  • Oakland Athletics (+165) vs. Miami Marlins (-195)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (-135) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+115)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-180) vs. Washington Nationals (+155)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs. Boston Red Sox (+110)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+115) vs. New York Mets (-135)
  • Seattle Mariners (-130) vs. Texas Rangers (+110)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+110) vs. Houston Astros (-130)
  • Colorado Rockies (+100) vs. Kansas City Royals (-120)
  • Cleveland Guardians (+110) vs. Minnesota Twins (-130)
  • Detroit Tigers (OFF) vs. Chicago White Sox
  • Chicago Cubs (+140) vs. San Diego Padres (-165)
  • Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+105)
  • New York Yankees (+120) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+135) vs. San Francisco Giants (-155)

Friday’s MLB best bets

  • Player Prop: Michael Wacha to record a win (+155 via DraftKings) vs. Cubs ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Ryan McMahon to hit a home run (+425 via PointsBet) vs. Royals ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Dean Kremer Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Rangers ML vs. Mariners (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Michael Wacha to record a win vs. Cubs (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Chicago Cubs have lost all eight of Jameson Taillon’s starts in 2023, according to ESPN Stats & Info. That's tied for the third-most consecutive defeats to start a season in Cubs history.

Taillon is the only Cubs starting pitcher with a negative WAR as a result. He's made just one start while allowing fewer than five runs and completing five innings. Also, his 69 pitches per start puts stress on a bullpen with the worst ERA (4.60) among all National League teams.

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Expect the San Diego Padres to jump on the Cubs early, with a strong start from Michael Wacha backing the team. He leads the squad's starters in WHIP, HR/9, WAR, innings pitched, and pitches per start. We're getting great value on a pitcher who has won three of his last four starts against a team that's just 4-9 as road underdogs in 2023.

This will become a more confident four-star play if Manny Machado is activated from the IL. He's expected to play at some point during San Diego's homestand. 

With PointsBet and Caesars slightly lower at +150 and +151 odds, we're heading to DraftKings for maximum value.

Check out our MLB MVP odds.

Player prop: Ryan McMahon to hit a home run vs. Royals (+425 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

Although the Colorado Rockies have hit the fifth-fewest home runs, we can't help but back a Rockies hitter to homer off of Kansas City Royals righty Jordan Lyles, who has allowed an MLB-high 16 dingers.

Rockies second baseman Ryan McMahon is the most logical choice, as his eight long balls and 31 RBIs lead the team. McMahon is coming off a recent tear when he hit home runs in four consecutive games during May 26-29, snapping a 28-game homerless streak.

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The infielder has clubbed seven of his eight home runs against righties, and his OPS against righties is 173 points higher than against lefties. This is a three-star play, as Lyles has given up 2-plus home runs in six of his last eight starts.  

PointsBet is one of our two best sports betting apps offering higher than +400 odds (FanDuel is the other at +420) , making it our go-to shop for this wager.

Check out our MLB rookie of the year odds.

Player prop: Dean Kremer Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Giants (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Baltimore Orioles righty Dean Kremer finished April with an uninspiring 6.67 ERA. But he improved mightily in May, ending the month with a 2.45 ERA and three wins across five starts. That's a tremendous accomplishment considering all five starts came against top-11 offenses in the league, including the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, the two top-scoring teams in MLB.

While the San Francisco Giants are just behind Kremer’s recent competition with the 15th-most runs scored, facing them should be a walk in the park in comparison. Joc Pederson is on the IL, and Michael Conforto remains day-to-day with a heel injury. Those two players rank third and fourth in OPS among Giants hitters with 80-plus at-bats. Their absence significantly lowers the ceiling of a team that ranks in the bottom five of the league in strikeout rate and the bottom half in wRC+ during home games in 2023.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering plus-money odds to take the Under on 2.5 earned runs for Kremer.

Check out our Cy Young odds.

Friday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Rangers ML vs. Mariners (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Seattle Mariners are favorites in this series opener, mainly because Luis Castillo enters with a streak of 12 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run. However, Rangers righty Jon Gray is no slouch either. He hasn't lost a decision since his first start of the season, and Gray is pitching to a 2.68 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last seven outings.

The Rangers have won each of Gray’s last five starts, and they boast a plus-24 run differential in that span. An offense that's on pace to become the eighth team since 1900 (and first since the 1999 Cleveland Guardians) to crack the 1,000-run plateau backs Gray.

This is a four-star play, as Gray’s strikeout total has increased during each of his previous three starts, and he tied a season-high with eight punchouts during a 2-1 road win at Seattle in early May.   

FanDuel is the next closest sportsbook at +108 odds for the Rangers among our best live betting sites, but DraftKings offers the best value for Texas backers.

Check out our hits leader odds.

MLB best bets made 6/2/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.