⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Reds Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, June 13

Two struggling National League opponents look to get right in the middle game of this three-game series as the Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks from Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), and the starting pitching matchup features Michael Soroka against Rhett Lowder. The Diamondbacks are a -135 betting favorite.

My Diamondbacks vs. Reds prediction backs the road favorite behind Soroka’s strong pitching. But I do expect Lowder to limit one of Arizona’s best right-handed bats, while finding value in a separate Diamondbacks slugger’s home run odds as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Reds picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Reds?

Cincinnati is 0-4 with a minus-22 run differential the last four times Rhett Lowder has toed the rubber, which has me backing a Diamondbacks victory.

Score prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Reds 4

💰 Diamondbacks vs. Reds prediction & best bet

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Diamondbacks ML (-135)

Arizona went 3-9 over a 12-game stretch entering this series, while batting .105 with runners in scoring position. But the Diamondbacks should have plenty of chances to get right with runners on base against Rhett Lowder, who has issued 13 walks over his last three appearances, spanning 7 ⅓ innings.

Meanwhile, Michael Soroka has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, while pitching to a 2.28 ERA over that span. He is on pace to lower his ERA for the fourth consecutive season, while his 5.6% walk rate is a career best.

🔥 Best Diamondbacks vs. Reds player prop bet

Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 total bases (-162)

Lowder’s control issues (he ranks in the 13th percentile in walk rate) are a big factor in this wager, as walks do not count towards a player’s total bases. And while the righty also ranks poorly in terms of xBA and xERA (17th and 16th percentile, respectively), he has done well to limit damage from a power and extra-base hit perspective.

Lowder has allowed 17 hits in 69 at-bats to right-handed batters (.246), but just four of those have gone for extra bases, and all have been doubles. Meanwhile, Nolan Arenado has stayed under this projected total in 10 of 11 June games, as he has no multi-hit games and just two total extra-base hits, while batting .186 in 18 games leading up to this series.

💣 Diamondbacks vs. Reds home run prediction

Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+319)

Nine of Corbin Carroll’s 11 home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and he owns a better HR/AB ratio in that split compared to what he’s done against southpaws. Carroll also has already hit more home runs this month (four) than he did in either April or May.

Carroll entered the series slashing .304/.383/.618 over the last 30 days. In June alone, he has slugged .622, and ranks second among all batters since May 9 in terms of hard-hit rate.

Even if Lowder doesn’t pitch into the fourth inning for the fourth consecutive start, Carroll should have plenty of opportunities to go deep off a Reds bullpen that allows the second-highest home run per fly ball rate of all National League teams.

🚀 Diamondbacks vs. Reds same-game parlay

I'm backing Arizona to win outright as the primary leg of this three-leg same-game parlay, even if I don't expect it to get much offensive contribution from Nolan Arenado. But Arenado still can contribute with an RBI or just one single, and driving in Carroll if he is on the basepaths would do wonders for me cashing the third leg. Carroll would cash this Over if he hits a home run, but I am swapping that wager out for this play to give myself a more realistic chance of hitting this SGP.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Diamondbacks vs. Reds: MLB strategy

Given Arizona's recent struggles with runners in scoring position combined with Michael Soroka's stretch of dominant pitching, part of me wanted to back the Under as my best game pick. But Cincinnati's bullpen ranks dead last in terms of xERA and FIP, and I didn't want to have to hold my breath during any innings pitched by a Reds reliever, especially if Lowder cannot make it past the third inning again.

There was also no real desire to lay the -1.5 runs with the Diamondbacks given that four of Cincinnati's last 11 losses have been by one or two runs. 

📊 Live Diamondbacks vs. Reds odds

With the early betting splits being 61/39 in support of Arizona, oddsmakers have slightly shaded the line in the Diamondbacks' favor. The biggest movement was at BetMGM, which ticked up from an opening number of -135 to -140. 

After opening at an O/U of 9 runs, which aligned with the rest of the market, FanDuel is the only top sports betting site that has moved to 9.5. But I don't know how many other competing sportsbooks will follow that trend given the near dead-even betting splits on both sides of the total.

📈 Diamondbacks vs. Reds betting trends

🚑 Diamondbacks vs. Reds injuries

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Reds

• Date: Saturday, June 13
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Michael Soroka (8-3, 3.28 ERA)
• Reds starter: Rhett Lowder (3-3, 5.01 ERA)