⚾ Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, June 12
The Miami Marlins head to PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pa.) to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight for the first game in this National League series. The Marlins will feature Sandy Alcantara on the bump, while Braxton Ashcraft toes the rubber for the Pirates, as these teams sit just outside the National League Wild Card seeding.
My Marlins vs. Pirates prediction includes a moneyline, two player props featuring a home run, and a same-game parlay. The Pirates are -140 home favorites ahead of Friday's first pitch, set for 6:40 p.m. ET, streaming on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV.
⚾ Marlins vs. Pirates picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates ML (-140 via Caesars) | 1.4u → 1u | Pirates have won 3 of Braxton Ashcraft's last 4 starts. |
| Brandon Lowe O 1.5 H+R+RBIs (-140 via FanDuel) | 1.4u → 1u | Lowe has gone over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in 2 straight starts. |
| Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Home Runs (+620 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.55u | Horwitz has gone deep in 2 of last 3 starts for the Pirates and faces Sandy Alcantara, who gave up 6 home runs across three recent starts. |
Total wagered: 3.05 units | Max profit: 3.55 units
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🏆 Who will win Marlins vs. Pirates?
The Marlins carry a five-game win streak into tonight's matchup against the Pirates. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is on a slump, losing five of its last six games.
The Pirates are primed for a bounce-back in this spot against Sandy Alcantara. They just finished playing the Dodgers and Braves, two of the top teams in the MLB this season.
Alcantara has surrendered 18 earned runs across his last four starts. The Pirates' offense averages 5.09 runs per game, ranked sixth-best in the league. I expect Pittsburgh to post a convincing win with a 7-4 victory tonight.
Score prediction: Pirates 7, Marlins 4
💰 Marlins vs. Pirates prediction & best bet
Pirates Moneyline (-140)
Braxton Ashcraft has been a solid starter for the Pirates this season. The 26-year-old righty ranks in the 84th percentile in pitching run value and 85th in breaking run value.
He boasts a 93 percent chase rate and limits walks (5.3/93rd percentile), while winning three of his last four starts for Pittsburgh. Alcantara sits at the bottom of key metrics, including a woeful .268 batting average (19th percentile) and xERA of 4.08 (48th percentile) this season.
Head to Caesars to bet on the Pirates moneyline at -140 odds against the Marlins tonight.
📡 SBR Edge: Back Braxton at Home
Braxton Ashcraft has won 3 of his last 4 starts at PNC Park, beating the Reds, Cubs, and Twins, with the lone loss coming in extra innings to the Phillies on May 15.
🔥 Best Marlins vs. Pirates player prop bet
Brandon Lowe O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-140)
One of Pittsburgh's key pieces in its lineup has been Brandon Lowe. Acquired via trade from the Rays this offseason, Lowe has 60 hits (4th-most on team) and leads the Pirates in SLG at .523.
Lowe has logged over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in back-to-back starts, both against the Dodgers. One of those was a home run, while the other was a two-RBI double.
Alcantara has allowed at least five hits in five straight starts, while 17 of 18 earned runs came during a three-game stretch, including two road starts.
Lowe's best number on Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs is available at -140 odds on FanDuel.
💣 Marlins vs. Pirates home run prediction
Spencer Horwitz to hit a home run (+620)
Spencer Horwitz should be excited for tonight's showdown against Alcantara. The Marlins' starter has allowed six home runs in his last four starts, while ranking average in barrel rate (6.8) and hard-hit rate (37.2) this season.
Horwitz also has plenty to like from a batter's perspective. He ranks in the 88th percentile or better for chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
Horwitz may not have a ton of power, but that hasn't stopped him from hitting bombs, logging two home runs in his last three starts for the Pirates.
At +620 odds on bet365, it's worth staking a quarter unit (0.25) on the Pirates' lead-off hitter to go yard at home against a vulnerable pitcher like Alcantara.
🚀 Marlins vs. Pirates same-game parlay
The Pirates should be able to win this game by multiple runs tonight. They've accomplished this feat in each of Ashcraft's last two home starts. Miami's top hitter, Otto Lopez, has logged 2+ hits in five straight starts. Bet a half unit (0.50) at +380 odds on bet365.
💵 Marlins vs. Pirates SGP picks
- Pirates -1.5 (+140)
- Otto Lopez (+100)
Best odds: +380 via bet365 (0.5u -> 1.9u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-15-3 | -1.99 units ❌ | -11.5% ❌ |
| Game picks | 2-1-2 | +0.85 units ✅ | 17.0% ✅ |
| Player props | 3-11-1 | -1.51 units ❌ | -17.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-3 | -0.74 units ❌ | -18.5% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Marlins vs. Pirates: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking a total of 3.55 units on four separate bets in tonight's matchup between the Marlins and Pirates. We're laying juice on the Pirates moneyline and Brandon Lowe to go over 1.5 H+R+RBIs, each priced at -140, so both have a 1.4-unit stake to collect a unit of profit on each wager.
The home run prop is a quarter unit (0.25) investment on Pirates' lead-off hitter, Spencer Horwitz, to hit his 10th home run of the season at +620 odds, yielding 1.55 units of profit.
Finally, a 0.50-unit stake is on the Pirates run line (-1.5) paired with Miami's top hitter, Otto Lopez, to record 2+ total bases, resulting in 1.9 units of profit if it wins.
📊 Live Marlins vs. Pirates odds
Since lines opened up for this game, the Pirates have moved from -140 to -144 on the moneyline, while the run total has climbed from 8.0 to 8.5. 69 percent of public bets are on the Pirates moneyline, while 51 percent of public action is on under 8.5 total runs.
📈 Marlins vs. Pirates betting trends
| Marlins | Statistic | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| 34-35 | W-L record | 35-34 |
| 32-37 | Run line record | 35-34 |
| 39-27-3 | O/U record | 40-27-2 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4.12 | Team ERA | 4.21 |
| .245 | Team batting avg. | .254 |
| .704 | OPS | .741 |
🚑 Marlins vs. Pirates injuries
📺 How to watch Marlins vs. Pirates
- Date: Friday, June 12
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pa.)
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Marlins starter: Sandy Alcantara (5-4, 4.33 ERA)
- Pirates starter: Braxton Ashcraft (5-3, 3.28 ERA)
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