MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Monday, July 27)
We're having a strong MLB season so far, boasting an 8.5% ROI overall and a 26.5% ROI on player props. My MLB home run predictions today like the odds on Mike Trout, Ian Happ, and Brice Turang to go yard on this Monday slate.
My MLB home run picks are targeting these hitters because they should be able to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 27
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout Over 0.5 home runs (+343 via DraftKings) | 0.58u β 2u | Trout has a .581 xSLG vs. fastballs, Imai's go-to pitch vs. RHH. |
| Ian Happ Over 0.5 home runs (+600 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 2u | Happ is slugging .538 and .465 vs. breaking balls and fastballs, respectively, which account for 85% of Liberatore's pitch usage. |
| Brice Turang Over 0.5 home runs (+750 via FanDuel) | 0.27u β 2u | Turang is slugging .517 vs. fastballs, which Mahle throws 66% of the time vs. LHH. |
Total wagered: 1.18 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Mike Trout (+343)
Trout's pitching matchup today puts him in a strong spot to homer. He's facing Tatsuya Imai, who throws 53% fastballs to right-handed hitters, and Trout has a .581 xSLG against fastballs this season.
While Trout has hit just 18 home runs this season, he ranks fifth in Brls/PA% (10.2%), ahead of Ben Rice (10%), Hunter Goodman (9.8%), and Kyle Schwarber (9.1%), who all have more than 30 homers this season.
Mike Trout Over 0.5 home runs (+343) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Looking for NRFIs? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Buy the Dip
Trout hasn't homered in 13 straight games. The last time he went 13 consecutive games without a home run, he hit five homers over the following four outings.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ian Happ (+600)
Happ at +600 is a wild number. While he's not the most likely player to homer in Cubs vs. Cardinals tonight, his implied probability should be much higher than 14.29%.
Happ is slugging .538 and .465 against breaking balls and fastballs, respectively, and those two pitches account for 85% of Matthew Liberatore's usage this season. I would price this closer to +450 based on these splits.
Ian Happ Over 0.5 home runs (+600) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Brice Turang (+750)
While granted, Oracle Park isn't the most hitter-friendly stadium, Turang at +750 is too good of a price to pass up.
He's slugging .517 against fastballs, which Tyler Mahle throws 66% of the time to left-handed hitters. Turang has already homered in three of his last 12 games, and Mahle ranks in the 16th percentile with a -7 pitching run value.
Brice Turang Over 0.5 home runs (+750) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mike Trout to hit 1+ home runs (+310)
- Ian Happ to hit 1+ home runs (+600)
- Brice Turang to hit 1+ home runs (+675)
Best odds: +21348 via BetMGM (0.05u -> 10.67u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13-2 | +2.22 units β | 8.5% β |
| Player props | 5-8-1 | +3.03 units β | 26.5% β |
| Game props | 2-2 | -0.78 units β | -9.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-2 | -0.15 units β | -100% β |
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