Phillies vs. Marlins Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Monday, July 27)

RHP Zack Wheeler and RHP Tyler Phillips square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Phillies vs. Marlins win probability.

The Phillies have a 63% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher with how poorly the Marlins have played since the All-Star break. First pitch from LoanDepot Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Marlins? Live MLB win probability

The Phillies have a 63% win probability, and more than $1.5 million has already been traded in this market. Philadelphia originally opened with just a 55% win probability on Friday night, but money has come in on the Phillies as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on Philadelphia are available at 64¢, with more than $100,000 in liquidity at that price.

Philadelphia snapped a four-game losing skid with an 11-4 win over the Yankees on Sunday. Second baseman Bryson Stott (3-for-4, 5 RBIs) hit a solo home run in the second inning and drove in five runs.

The Marlins have lost nine consecutive games since the All-Star break and 12 straight overall. They're coming off a 5-3 loss to the Padres on Sunday. First baseman Kyle Stowers hit a solo home run in the third inning, his 13th of the season.

My prediction: Phillies win (64¢). Wheeler has the second-highest chance to win the NL Cy Young Award and gets to face a team that hasn't won a game since the All-Star break. He should dominate this matchup.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Phillies vs. Marlins?

Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber leads the NL with 33 home runs, so it's no surprise he has the highest probability of going yard today. His 27% home run probability is lower than usual - I've seen him as high as 32% - as he's homered just once over his last 14 games.

First baseman Bryce Harper has the second-highest probability, at 16%. The only other option on the board right now is shortstop Trea Turner, at 11%.

My prediction: Bryce Harper to hit a home run (16¢). This actually isn't a great pitching matchup for Schwarber or Turner, but Harper should have success today. He has a .504 xSLG against breaking balls, which Phillips throws 43% of the time - his most-used pitch - to left-handed hitters. For more home run analysis, check out the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Phillies vs. Marlins?

More than $36,000 in volume has been traded in this market, with traders projecting a 46% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 47¢, you can instantly get more than $10,000 filled.

The Phillies have had a first-inning run scored in 52% of their games, while the Marlins have seen a first-inning run in 46% of theirs. Wheeler hasn't allowed a first-inning run in nine straight starts, while Phillips has allowed one or more in each of his last two starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (54¢). Wheeler going nine straight starts without allowing a first-inning run is too good to pass up. The risk here is Phillips, but with Schwarber showing less power lately, he should be able to get out of the first inning unscathed. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Phillies vs. Marlins win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Marlins

• Date: Monday, July 27
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: LoanDepot Park (Miami)
• TV: MLB.TV
• Phillies starter: Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.16 ERA)
• Marlins starter: Tyler Phillips (2-5, 3.52 ERA)