Astros vs. White Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, July 26

The Houston Astros look for a sixth straight win with a sweep of the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on Sunday afternoon. My Astros vs. White Sox prediction backs the home favorites as Ronel Blanco continues to work off the rust in just his second start. I back Miguel Vargas for a big game at the plate, even though a Houston slugger has great odds to score a run as part of my MLB picks.

First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with Erick Fedde taking the mound for Chicago. The White Sox are -115 betting favorites.

⚾ Astros vs. White Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. White Sox?

While Houston is a surprising six games over .500 against teams with a winning record (and two games under .500 overall this season), Chicago has been lights out at home and the more consistent team all season.

Score prediction: White Sox 6, Astros 4

💰 Astros vs. White Sox prediction & best bet

White Sox ML (-108)

Chicago has won each of Erick Fedde’s last four starts with a plus-15 run differential, with two wins coming against current AL playoff teams. It is also 8-2 in his last 10 outings, with the two losses coming by one run apiece.

Fedde has pitched to a 2.70 ERA or better each of the last two months. He’s done a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark of late, with two home runs allowed over his last 29 ⅔ innings.

Meanwhile, Ronel Blanco looked rusty in his first start of the season on Monday issuing three walks.

🔥 Best Astros vs. White Sox player prop bet

Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 runs (-122)

Jeremy Pena began the week with a three-game home run streak, which included his seventh career leadoff home run (one shy of tying Bill Doran for sixth-most in franchise history). By the conclusion of that three-game streak, he was batting .365 with a .635 slugging percentage and 16 RBI over his previous 20 games.

Pena is slashing an absurd .410/.442/.641 in July while amid an active eight-game hitting streak. He has nine hits in his previous 14 at-bats. That hot streak while batting in front of AL Triple Crown candidate Yordan Alvarez resulted in 10 runs scored in a seven-game stretch, while he has crossed the plate at least once in 12 of his last 17.

💣 Astros vs. White Sox home run prediction

Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+325)

Ronel Blanco only allowed two hits in his first start, but both were home runs. That’s a dangerous way to make a living when facing a White Sox lineup that ranks in the top 10 in homers.

Miguel Vargas stole the show as the only player to homer in this year’s All-Star Game. Despite not homering in 32 at-bats since, Vargas still has four extra-base hits in that span. He ranks in the 91st percentile in barrels, and the 97th percentile or higher in xSLG and xwOBA. 

Blanco allowed a troubling 62.5% hard-hit rate in his first start, and that should get him into more trouble at a hitter-friendly Rate Field.

🚀 Astros vs. White Sox same-game parlay

Since I love Jeremy Pena's chances to cross the plate, I didn't want that wager to conflict my White Sox moneyline play. I do expect a high-scoring affair, so I am comfortable changing my full game prediction for this SGP to a play on the Over. That fits my more conservative third leg of this parlay where I expect Vargas to drive in a run while swapping out his odds to homer.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. White Sox: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

While I tipped the Over as part of my same-game parlay prediction, I prefer Chicago's virtual pick'em moneyline odds at FanDuel because of Chicago's stellar record in Fedde's starts. But with the O/U being set at 9.5, I wouldn't put anyone off making much of their portfolio a combination of player prop wagers, plenty of which one can find for plus-money odds (especially in the RBI market).

📊 Live Astros vs. White Sox odds

There's a significant 14-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between Chicago's shortest moneyline odds at -108 through FanDuel and the team's -122 odds at the other end of the market at bet365, which carry a 54.95% implied probability. There are plenty of believers in Houston's five-game winning streak coming to an end today, as 61% of the early wagers have backed the White Sox' moneyline.

Currently, the best sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 9.5, with the Under juiced as high as -122. BetMGM and Caesars are the only sportsbooks to have dipped as low as 9 overnight, but the books quickly returned to their opening numbers of 9.5 to align with the rest of the market. We could see more O/Us of 9 pop up before first pitch, especially with the juice so heavily leaning towards the Under, and 59% of the wagers on that side of the total.

📈 Astros vs. White Sox betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. White Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. White Sox

• Date: Sunday, July 26
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rate Field (Chicago)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Astros starter: Ronel Blanco (0-0, 7.71 ERA)
• White Sox starter: Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.16 ERA)