MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, July 25
I'm going with three rising sluggers in my home run predictions today, all of whom are enjoying breakout seasons.
That applies most of all to Hunter Goodman, who leads off my MLB home run picks while sitting third leaguewide after clubbing 31 homers. He's been especially scorching throughout July, too.
Kody Clemens and Miguel Vargas are skyrocketing as well, and putting themselves among MLB's best in several core advanced hitting metrics.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 25
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman home run (+255 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.51u | Should see a steady diet of sinkers, a pitch he's annihilating. |
| Miguel Vargas home run (+420 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.84u | Is similarly effective against sinkers, and Hunter Brown leans on that pitch. |
| Kody Clemens home run (+350 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Will see plenty of an atrocious Athletics bullpen. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.05 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+255)
It's saying something about his ability to reach another level when Goodman is producing the catcher's best month of the season during a campaign already filled with similar highs. He's put up a 1.147 OPS in July, which comes after his absurd 13 homers in June.
He draws a tough matchup today against the Milwaukee Brewers' Robert Gasser, who's skilled at suppressing hard contact. However, Gasser leans heavily on his sinker to achieve that goal when facing righties, throwing it 21% of the time. Goodman is slugging an astronomical .824 against that pitch (third best in MLB).
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Airing it out
Gasser's air pull rate allowed of 23% sits among the bottom 35 of the 269 qualified pitchers this season, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+420)
A breakout season from Miguel Vargas that includes 21 homers already when his previous career high was 16 has come through a simple yet time-honored method: repeatedly making thunderous contact.
Vargas sits in the 91st percentile in barrel rate at 14.6%. Even more impressively, his .525 expected slugging puts him eighth leaguewide, and among the likes of Ben Rice and Mike Trout.
Yes, he's soaring that high, and tonight he gets a chance to maintain that elevation while teeing off on his favorite pitch. Similar to Gasser, the Astros' Hunter Brown relies a lot on his sinker against righties, throwing it 42% of the time. Vargas is posting a .576 expected slugging percentage against that offering.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB picks for Saturday
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Mike Spector's Padres vs. Marlins prediction and Dodgers vs. Mets prediction.
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+350)
The Twins' Kody Clemens is also enjoying a power surge while sitting on 18 homers, nearly matching his career-single-season high of 19 with almost a week still remaining in July.
He's been producing that outburst through repeated pulverizing. His average exit velocity sits in the 94th percentile, and 15th leaguewide at 92.7 mph. Like Vargas, that puts a previously unheralded player in the company of established sluggers like Bobby Witt Jr, Matt Olson, and Junior Caminero.
The woeful Athletics are set to start Mason Barnett, who isn't fully stretched out and threw just 38 pitches during the righty's most recent start in the minor leagues. That means Clemens will get to see plenty of a putrid Athletics bullpen that sits last MLB-wide with a 5.60 ERA.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Hunter Goodman home run (+255)
- Miguel Vargas home run (+420)
- Kody Clemens home run (+350)
Best odds: +8207 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 1.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 68-182-2 | -0.39 units β | -0.4% β |
| Home run picks | 36-122-0 | -0.69 units β | -0.02% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-46 | +0.52 units β | +0.55% β |
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