Mariners vs. Rangers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 25)
It could be a clawing fight for the AL West down the stretch, and the Mariners vs. Rangers win probability from the prediction market apps shows the margins will be tight tonight, too.
It's a tossup in the win probability market for this game heading into another key affair in the battle for the division. The Rangers enter with a 1.5-game lead over the Mariners.
A basement-level low probability of a run in the first inning is an indication of what could be coming in a low-scoring night. Texas took the series opener 5-4 last night.
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🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Rangers? Live MLB win probability
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There's a slugfest for the AL West, and that's reflected in this market, with both teams getting a 50% win probability. The two teams have flipped several times since the market opened, but neither has been a sizable favorite, with the Rangers topping out at a 53% win probability on Wednesday.
The Mariners have stayed in the fight despite losing three straight, and nine of their last 13 outings. An already scuffling offense has been bottoming out even more amid that stretch, with the Mariners averaging just 2.3 runs per game during those defeats.
A stellar pitching staff is what keeps the Mariners afloat, with the team sitting sixth in ERA (3.61). That includes tonight's starter Bryan Woo, who continues to display impressive control with his 4.9% walk rate that sits in the 95th percentile.
However, Woo has been wobbling more since the beginning of June, a month when he posted a 5.97 ERA. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi, Woo's counterpart tonight, has been thriving with a daunting splitter, leading to a chase rate that's risen from 29.9% last year to 36.5% now.
My prediction: Rangers win. Opposing hitters are also putting up a batting average of just .190 against Eovaldi's splitter, which is rated as the league's best such offering while generating a run value of 11, according to Baseball Savant.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Mariners vs. Rangers?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | 20% |
| Julio Rodriguez | 15% |
| Randy Arozarena | 13% |
Cal Raleigh isn't showing anywhere near enough signs of life yet to lead any home run market.
Sure, he can still put a charge into the odd meatball, but his fall from last year's heights remains stunning. He carries the second-worst expected batting average leaguewide at .178, and his hard-hit percentage has fallen disastrously from 49.6% last year to 31.7% now.
Eovaldi has been prone to the long ball though despite the effectiveness of his splitter, as he comes into tonight with a 1.6 HR/9. We're getting the greatest value on Randy Arozarena to go deep, and he may be best positioned to take advantage of Eovaldi's vulnerability.
The veteran leans on his curveball as a key secondary pitch against righties while throwing it 22% of the time, and Arozarena has been slugging .500 against that offering.
My prediction: Randy Arozarena to hit a home run. He also boasts an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph that sits in the 78th percentile. For more, head over to my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mariners vs. Rangers?
The Rangers are MLB's second-best YRFI team, largely due to their 22nd-ranked pitching staff and its 4.32 ERA.
However, the Mariners sit on the opposite end of the spectrum as the ninth-best NRFI squad, and their anemic offense isn't well-positioned to pounce on Eovaldi early. Yes, he can be susceptible to the long ball at times, including five homers allowed across his past three starts. But the Mariners' offense lacks the power to take advantage at any point, including early.
Currently, four Mariners regulars are putting up a hard-hit percentage below 40%, most notably Raleigh and Josh Naylor (36.1%), both of whom were supposed to provide the thump for Seattle's offense.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. Woo can certainly do his part too, as he's gone 12 straight outings without allowing a first-inning run.
📊 Mariners vs. Rangers win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 50% | 47% | ↑ 3% |
| Rangers | 50% | 53% | ↓ 3% |
📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Rangers
- Date: Saturday, July 25
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Globe Life Field (City, State)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mariners starter: Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.16 ERA)
- Rangers starter: Nathan Eovaldi (9-8), 4.21 ERA)
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