⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, June 12
Dinger hunting means always being in the business of catching pitchers on the decline, and my home run predictions today are no exception.
My MLB home run picks are locking in on two such hurlers while relying on Kerry Carpenter and Ketel Marte to take them deep. Then there's the always threatening Tyler Soderstrom, who faces the Colorado Rockies and their laughingstock set of hurlers.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 12
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.82u | Can pounce on Tanner Bibee, who continues to regress swiftly. |
| Tyler Soderstrom home run (+225 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.45u | The Rockies' pitching staff remains atrocious in every way imaginable. |
| Ketel Marte home run (+279 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.56u | Nick Lodolo's ERA has gone from 3.33 last year to 5.51 now. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.83 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+410)
The Cleveland Guardians' Tanner Bibee is getting further removed from the quality two first seasons of his career, though last year we could at least pop the hood and see promising underlying metrics. Not so much lately, as Bibee's hard-hit rate allowed has risen sharply from 36.8% last campaign to 45.6% now.
Carpenter is enduring an odd season himself, with a strikeout ratio that's rising. But we care little about here that if he's still smacking the ball hard (82nd percentile hard-hit rate) and getting it in the air (39.5% fly-ball rate, up from 33.1% last year).
📡 SBR Edge: Putting a charge into changeups
Right-handers often try to get lefties out through a changeup, and that's the case with Bibee too. A changeup is his most-used pitch against lefties while throwing it 29% of the time, and Carpenter is annihilating that offering and putting up an .875 slugging percentage.
π₯ More home run picks today
Tyler Soderstrom to hit a home run (+225)
Yes, Soderstrom's price is shorter by the standards of this market. But if you're thinking like me and need some of the A's in your life tonight against Colorado's laughable staff, he's the most appealing of the group. Nick Kurtz sits around +172 at the best MLB betting sites, while Shea Langeliers is even shorter at +152.
So we're getting comparably good value for a baseball punisher soaring to all-galaxy heights right now with a 1.346 OPS over the past two weeks, a stretch when Soderstrom has clubbed five of his 11 homers. He'll take that and his .685 slugging when facing a breaking ball against the Rockies' MLB-worst 5.56 team ERA, far higher than the second-last Houston Astros at 4.85.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Mike Spector's best NRFI bets today.
Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+279)
Marte gets a chance to tee off on the rapidly declining Nick Lodolo, the Reds' starter who has gone from strikeout menace to a tamer, gentler lefty.
His K/9 falling from 9.0 last year to 6.9 now has translated to far more opportunities for contact. Lodolo's 5.51 ERA is bad enough, but an expected ERA of 6.64 shows even more significant regression is coming.
The switch-hitting Marte will face Lodolo from the right side, which leads to his better split, as he's posting an OPS of .826 as a righty, as opposed to .708 as a lefty. He should see plenty of fastballs since Lodolo leans on heat more against righties, and that pitch is getting demolished for a .643 slugging percentage.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Lefties, or a switch-hitter in one case, are the common link today, as all three in my trio get ideal opportunities to lift off from that side of the plate against weak pitching.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kerry Carpenter home run (+410)
- Tyler Soderstrom home run (+225)
- Ketel Marte home run (+279)
Best odds: +6032 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 1.21u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39-122-2 | -5 units β | -8.3% β |
| Home run picks | 23-83-0 | -1.23 units β | -5.54% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-26 | 0.80 units β | 1.48% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
We don't even yet know who's starting for the Rockies tonight or how they'll approach this game from a pitching perspective, but it doesn't matter. Their staff is so awful from top to bottom that you want to target them as much as possible in this market, and especially when the slug-filled A's are involved.
The Athletics sit ninth leaguewide with 87 home runs, while the Rockies are tied for the third-most allowed.
That's why Soderstrom gets the nod again tonight after coming through for me earlier this week when my home run parlay hit. The only reason he's not hitting leadoff as the best bet is the shorter price compared to Carpenter.
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