Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, July 28

Arguably the best rivalry in Major League Baseball takes place for the second time amid a four-game series as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. My Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction backs the home underdogs to even the series given how well Michael McGreevy has pitched at home.

That means I’m banking on a big day offensively from Ivan Herrera against Colin Rea, though it’s a Cubs slugger I expect to go deep as the last of my MLB picks. First pitch is set for 7:45 p.m. ET (TBS), and the Cubs are -115 betting favorites.

⚾ Cubs vs. Cardinals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.18 units

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Cardinals?

Two Cubs starting pitchers I cannot trust are Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea, so I’m backing St. Louis with the latter toeing the rubber tonight.

Score prediction: Cardinals 5, Cubs 3

💰 Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction & best bet

Cardinals ML (-102)

Chicago has scored 10 or more runs in 13 games, and only the Dodgers and Nationals have more. To beat the Cubs it’s going to take a masterful pitching performance, which is what I expect from Michael McGreevy.

McGreevy has made quality starts in seven of his last nine outings. He has been an innings-eater, with 19 outs recorded in three straight. Prior to facing a red-hot Diamondbacks offense for the second consecutive start, he had allowed just four earned runs over his previous 24.2 innings (spanning four starts), and he has dazzled with a 2.30 home ERA.

🔥 Best Cubs vs. Cardinals player prop bet

Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 RBI (+218)

Ivan Herrera is just 1-for-7 in his career against Colin Rea, but he has driven in a run in one of those two games, and should get the best of the righty tonight.

Herrera spent nearly a month from June 23 to the All-Star Break in one of the worst slumps of his career, slashing .156/.233/.208 with a 37 wRC+. But he had consecutive multi-hit games to end the Reds series with two extra-base hits and three RBI, and I expect him to keep that momentum going against a Cubs team he has great numbers against this season.

Entering this series, Herrera was batting .333 with a .916 OPS in 21 at-bats against Chicago. He should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs off of Rea, who has pitched to a 6.45 road ERA, with 12 of his 17 home runs allowed coming against right-handed batters.

💣 Cubs vs. Cardinals home run prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+408)

Pete Crow-Armstrong began the week ranked fourth in OPS (.932), and he has come a long way from the first 58 games where he batted .224 with six home runs, 24 RBI, and a .676 OPS.

Entering Sunday’s series finale against the Reds, Crow-Armstrong led the Majors in all three slash line categories (batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging), as well as wRC+ and fWAR since Memorial Day. 

McGreevy has allowed at least one home run in six of his last eight starts and nine of 12. I expect Crow-Armstrong to jump on a McGreevy fastball or changeup, which has xSLGs of .576 and .422, respectively, compared to his actual .429 and .327 slugging percentages on those pitches.

🚀 Cubs vs. Cardinals same-game parlay

The Cardinals are 3-8 in McGreevy's last 11 starts. In the wins they have held the opposition to a total of eight runs, while they've scored four or more runs in three of those losses. Thus, if I expect St. Louis to pull the upset, it is likely to come in a low-scoring affair. In addition, McGreevy is the most profitable pitcher in the league to the Under, cashing it in 15 of his 20 starts (+10.67 units).

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cubs vs. Cardinals: MLB strategy

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I mentioned the trend of McGreevy being the most profitable pitcher to the Under in the Majors, with his 10.67 combined units of profit to the Under in his starts topping the plus-9.4 units in Wacha's starts as of last week. But I am not backing the Under as my best game prediction because of how little I trust Rea on the road. That makes St. Louis' moneyline odds even though it has a losing record at home this season the more enticing play.

📊 Live Cubs vs. Cardinals odds

There's a significant 12-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between Chicago's shortest moneyline odds at -110 through BetMGM and the team's -122 odds at the other end of the market at bet365, which carry a 54.95% implied probability. A slight majority expect the Cubs to clinch a share of the series win, as 57% of the early wagers have backed their moneyline.

Currently, bet365 is the only one of the best sports betting sites with an O/U of 8.5, as the rest of the market is at 9. bet365 did move its total back to 8.5 briefly after a couple of upticks to 9, and it's the only sportsbook to see any movement in its total. It has a great chance of aligning with the others at 9 before first pitch since 61% of the wagers have backed the Over.

📈 Cubs vs. Cardinals betting trends

🚑 Cubs vs. Cardinals injuries

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Cardinals

• Date: Tuesday, July 28
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Colin Rea (7-7, 4.85 ERA)
• Cardinals starter: Michael McGreevy (4-8, 3.07 ERA)