MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Tuesday, July 28)
We still have a 3.6% ROI this season on MLB, despite going 0-for-3 on our home run picks Monday. Our MLB home run predictions today look to bounce back with Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado, and William Contreras on a loaded Tuesday slate.
My MLB home run picks target these hitters because they should be able to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 28
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+220 via FanDuel) | 0.91u β 2u | Ohtani has a .683 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Castillo throws 56% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Manny Machado to homer (+393 via DraftKings) | 0.51u β 2u | Machado has homered 4 times across his last 7 games. |
| William Contreras to homer (+800 via BetMGM) | 0.25u β 2u | Contreras has a .495 xSLG vs. fastballs, Roupp's go-to pitch vs. RHH. |
Total wagered: 1.67 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+220)
Ohtani hasn't homered in nine straight games, so on the surface, it might look like the 55-home-run hitter from last season is no longer a good bet. However, this is a great matchup for him tonight.
Luis Castillo throws 56% fastballs to left-handed hitters, and Ohtani has a .683 xSLG against fastballs. Ohtani still ranks seventh in MLB in Brls/PA%, so the analytics show he's still a strong bet to hit for power moving forward, especially if Castillo throws him a fastball.
Ohtani to homer (+220) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Home Cooking
Ohtani has homered in four of his last six games at Dodger Stadium.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Manny Machado (+393)
Yes, Machado is batting just .210 this season, but the power is still there - especially in recent weeks. He has homered four times over his last seven games and, over a larger sample, has cashed as an anytime home run hitter in 10 of his last 31.
He steps to the plate tonight against Michael Lorenzen, who ranks in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity (90.7), the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate (46.7%), and the first percentile in pitching run value (-30).
Machado to homer (+393) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: William Contreras (+800)
Contreras at +800 is too good to pass up. We took a flier on Ian Happ at +600 on Monday, and while he didn't go yard, his line closed at +450. If you beat the closing line by that much, you have a good bet.
With Contreras' matchup tonight, I expect his odds to close much shorter than +800. Contreras has a .495 xSLG against fastballs, which Landen Roupp throws 55% of the time to right-handed hitters. If Contreras sees enough fastballs tonight, we'll be laughing that we got him at +800.
Contreras to homer (+800) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB player props for Tuesday
Looking for more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and best strikeout props today.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | To record 1+ total runs | -130 |
| Carter Jensen | Royals | To hit 1+ home runs | +500 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Marlins | Under 18.5 pitcher outs | -200 |
| Nick Gonzales | Pirates | To record 2+ hits, runs & RBIs | -135 |
| Bryce Eldridge | Giants | To hit 1+ home runs | +500 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer (+219)
- Manny Machado to homer (+393)
- William Contreras to homer (+760)
Best odds: +13424 via DraftKings (0.05u -> 6.71u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-17-2 | +0.99 units β | 3.6% β |
| Player props | 5-11-1 | +1.85 units β | 14.6% β |
| Game props | 2-2 | -0.78 units β | -9.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-3 | -0.2 units β | -100% β |
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