⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, June 13
The Athletics’ homestand at the launching pad that is Las Vegas Ballpark continues, and that has me backing one of their sluggers to go yard as one of my best home run predictions today.
My other MLB home run picks are all centered around sluggers either amid torrid stretches, or those that are on pace to turn in career years. Most notably, Brandon Marsh is doing things from a BABIP perspective that we have rarely seen in the live-ball era, and Jordan Walker has already set career highs for home runs and RBIs.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 13
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+410 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.03u | Caglianone is tearing the cover off the ball in June |
| Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Walker was the main catalyst offensively for St. Louis' recent six-game winning streak |
| Brandon Marsh to hit a home run (+810 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 2.03u | Marsh is quietly complementing Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber with a historic BABIP rate |
| Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+148 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.37u | The Athletics' lineup has mashed 17 home runs in four games at Las Vegas Ballpark |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.62 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+410)
Jac Caglianone is tearing the cover off the ball in June, as he entered this series with a three-game multi-hit streak. Through his first nine June games, he slashed .533/.611/.900 with five extra-base hits, and three home runs. But perhaps the best sign of him getting more comfortable at the plate is his plate discipline, drawing five walks thus far after walking just six times in 27 games in May.
Caglianone has a great chance to go yard off of Mike Burrows, whose 2.09 HR/9 rate is the worst among all qualified pitchers.
📡 SBR Edge: Burrows' struggles against left-handed batters
Mike Burrows has allowed 12 of his 17 home runs to left-handed batters, and an overall .595 slugging percentage in that split.
🔥 More home run picks today
Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+475)
Jordan Walker was a catalyst for St. Louis’ recent six-game winning streak, during which he batted .464 with six extra-base hits and eight RBI. The team also averaged seven runs per game over that stretch.
Walker already has hit 17 home runs and driven in 55 runs, which are both new single-season highs (he had 16 homers and 51 RBI in 117 games in 2023). He gets a matchup with Twins southpaw Connor Prielipp, who hasn’t allowed a home run in 18.2 innings spanning four starts. But Prielipp also has recorded 13 or fewer outs in three of those appearances, while the Twins bullpen ranks 28th in ERA and 26th in BABIP.
Brandon Marsh to hit a home run (+810)
Entering this series against the Brewers, the Phillies trio of Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber combined for a .276/.365/.533 slash line, with 47 home runs and a 146 wRC+. Meanwhile, the rest of the team had a combined .207/.267/.324 slash line with 39 home runs and a 64 wRC+.
Compared to Harper’s and Schwarber’s home run odds, Marsh’s are a steal. His .375 career BABIP is second in the live-ball era (min. 2000 PA). He is also one of three players with a .400-plus batting average when pulling the ball, hitting straightaway, or going opposite field. And his .414 average against fastballs was on pace to be the second-highest in a season since 2008 (min. 100 PA).
Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+148)
In the Athletics’ first home game in Las Vegas since 1996 earlier this week, they belted seven home runs, which was one shy of a franchise single-game record. And they and the Brewers combined for 12 home runs in the game, which far surpassed the previous high this season of eight home runs (done four total times).
Langeliers is a great candidate to take advantage of the launching pad at Las Vegas Ballpark, especially when opposing Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Langeliers has the third-highest OPS against left-handed pitchers since the start of 2025 (min. 100 PA), trailing only Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez.
💥 More home run picks
I feature a Diamondbacks slugger in my Diamondbacks vs. Reds prediction.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
While this four-leg home run parlay includes two batters in the top 10 of the home run leaderboard, their odds are decent enough combined with less popular sluggers in Caglianone and Marsh to still turn in a tremendous payout if it cashes.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+410)
- Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+398)
- Brandon Marsh to hit a home run (+810)
- Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+132)
Best odds: +53520 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 53.5u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
It is rare to get a slugger of Jordan Walker's caliber who is tied for 10th in home runs at the odds we're getting him at today. But I'm not scared off of Connor Prielipp's four-start streak without allowing a home run, as regression is looming based on his 34th percentile ground-ball rate and 30th percentile barrel rate.
There is also great value in reaching a little bit for Marsh's home run odds, considering he ranks second in batting average since the start of May 2025 (.312), and 27th with a 133 wRC+.
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