⚾ Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, June 13
Two of the top teams in the National League will be on display tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Aaron Nola toes the rubber for the Phillies, while Shane Drohan is on the mound for the Brewers.
My Phillies vs. Brewers prediction features a moneyline, a couple of player props, including a home run pick, and a same-game parlay for my MLB picks. First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1, MLB.TV), with the Brewers valued as a -140 betting favorite.
⚾ Phillies vs. Brewers picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brewers ML (-140 via bet365) | 1.4u → 1u | Brewers have won 6 of last 8 H2H against the Phillies, while going 6-2 SU in last 8 home games played. |
| Jake Bauers O 1.5 H+R+RBIs (+105 via BetMGM) | 1u → 1.05u | Gone over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in 3 of last 5 starts. |
| Brice Turang Over 0.5 Home Runs (+650 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.62u | Second-most home runs on the Brewers (10) including 3 homers in last 6 starts. |
Total wagered: 2.65 units | Max profit: 3.67 units
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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Brewers?
This series has been owned by the Brewers in recent matchups. Milwaukee is 6-2 SU against the Phillies heading into tonight's game, while coming off a 6-0 shutout with Jacob Misiorowski continuing to dominate on the mound.
Aaron Nola has been stacking wins for the Phillies lately, however, he'll have his hands full against a Brewers lineup sporting a top-five batting average (.254) and the second-best OBP (.340) in 2026.
I give the edge to the Brewers tonight, who will wind up posting a 5-3 win at home to take a 2-0 lead in this National League series.
Score prediction: Brewers 5, Phillies 3
💰 Phillies vs. Brewers prediction & best bet
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Brewers Moneyline (-140)
The Brewers moneyline is going to be a popular play tonight but they outmatch the Phillies in virtually every hitting metric. Philadelphia is 28th in OBP (.296), 29th in batting average (.226) and bottom-10 in SLG (.385) this season.
Shane Drohan is ranked in the 81st percentile for pitching run value (7) and also sits in the top quadrant for xERA (3.05), xBA (.220), and chase rate. The Brewers' 27-year-old lefty is 3-1 as a starter with a 3.11 ERA, holding his past four opponents to seven total earned runs.
bet365 is offering the best number on the Brewers moneyline at -140 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Back the Brew Crew at Home
The Brewers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games played at American Family Field. Drohan is 1-1 as a starter, including 1-0 at home, since June 1.
🔥 Best Phillies vs. Brewers player prop bet
Jake Bauers Over 1.5 H+R+RBIs (+105)
Milwaukee has a lot of talented players in its lineup, including Jake Bauers. Milwaukee's 1B has a .278 batting average with 57 hits and 13 home runs this season.
Bauers has gone over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in three of his last five starts for the Brewers. He's in the 89th percentile for batting run value (13) and sits 91st in average exit velo (92.5) and the 97th percentile for hard-hit rate (54.7) this year.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola is just in the sixth percentile for pitching run value (-10) and the bottom percentile for fastball run value (-19) in 2026. It's another great matchup for Bauers, who just smashed a homer on Friday night.
Bet on Bauers to go over 1.5 H+R+RBIs at +105 odds on BetMGM.
💵 More MLB player props today
I feature Jac Caglianone and Bobby Witt Jr. in my Astros vs. Royals prediction.
💣 Phillies vs. Brewers home run prediction
Brice Turang to hit a home run (+650)
We're sticking with the Brewers lineup for a home run prop and targeting Brice Turang. Turang has the second-most homers for Milwaukee this season (10) and has recorded three home runs in his last six starts.
Turang ranks 76th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.0) and 74th in xSLG (.458) this year. Combine that with Nola's struggles on the mound, most notably 13th in fastball velo (91.8) and hard-hit rate (39.6), and Turang is set up to hit another bomb on Saturday night.
Head to FanDuel for the best line in Brice Turang's home run prop at +650 odds.
💥 More Phillies vs. Brewers home run picks
Our Mike Spector features Brandon Marsh in his best home run predictions today.
🚀 Phillies vs. Brewers same-game parlay
We've already highlighted why the Brewers will win tonight's game. Now, we're going to double down and pair that with under 8.5 total runs, since the run total under has won in 10 of the Phillies' last 12 road games, to get +209 odds for this SGP on bet365.
💵 Phillies vs. Brewers SGP picks
- Brewers ML (-140)
- Under 8.5 (-125)
Best odds: +209 via bet365 (0.5u -> 1.04u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18-3 | -3.14 units ❌ | -15.1% ❌ |
| Game picks | 2-2-2 | -0.55 units ❌ | -9.17% ❌ |
| Player props | 3-12-1 | -1.35 units ❌ | -14.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | -1.24 units ❌ | -27.6% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Phillies vs. Brewers: MLB strategy
I'm betting a total of 3.05 units on tonight's game between the Phillies and Brewers. My most confident plays are on the Brewers to win on the moneyline, which requires a bit of juice, so we're staking 1.4 units to turn a 1.0 unit profit.
Then, I'm backing Brewers 1B Jake Bauers to go over 1.5 H+R+RBIs at +105 odds for another full unit wager. We're scaling down for a home run prop on Brewers 2B, Brice Turang, to hit his 11th bomb of the year at +650 odds for a quarter unit (0.25) stake.
Finally, our two-leg SGP features the Brewers moneyline paired with the run total under 8.5 for 0.5 units at +209 odds for just over 1 unit of profit.
📊 Live Phillies vs. Brewers odds
The Brewers have exploded in moneyline markets, moving from -127 to -175 on select sportsbooks. The run total has also moved from 8.0 to 8.5. Public bettors are backing the Brewers on the moneyline with 61 percent of wagers, while 79 percent of action is hammering over 8.5 runs.
📈 Phillies vs. Brewers betting trends
| Phillies | Statistic | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| 37-32 | W-L record | 42-25 |
| 23-46 | Run line record | 39-28 |
| 29-38-2 | O/U record | 31-35-1 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 4.04 | Team ERA | 3.42 |
| .226 | Team batting avg. | .254 |
| .681 | OPS | .730 |
🚑 Phillies vs. Brewers injuries
📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Brewers
- Date: Saturday, June 13
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee)
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA)
- Brewers starter: Shane Drohan (3-1, 3.11 ERA)
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