MLB Player Prop Bets Today 8-16

All but two Major League Baseball teams are in action on Friday’s 14-game slate, and we have identified our best MLB player props for Friday based on our best sports betting sites.

This weekend is packed with interleague series, with six of Friday’s 14 games featuring a tilt between an American League and National League team. The interleague action kicks off the day with a series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs, with first pitch from Wrigley Field scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET.

That gives way to the only series on the weekend slate between two division leaders, as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cleveland Guardians in a battle between the two first-place teams in the Central divisions at American Family Field with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch.

Today’s MLB player props

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 hits (-165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 RBIs (+260 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jake Burger to hit a home run (+310 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Spencer Arrighetti Over 6.5 strikeouts (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB prop bets for Friday

Prediction: Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 hits ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -165 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 62.26%

Arozarena batted .211 in 100 games with Tampa Bay but is currently batting .271 with a .826 OPS in 17 games with Seattle. 

His odds of producing a base hit are lowered since he faces NL Rookie of the Year odds favorite and NL Cy Young odds contender, flamethrower Paul Skenes. However, while Arozarena has a 33.8% strikeout rate against fastballs this season (his worst against any pitch), he also has a .452 xSLG and a 55.1% hard hit percentage against them, which is his best against any pitch (he has seen fastballs on 28.1% of pitches this year).

Arozarena has hit safely in 11 of 17 games since joining the Mariners, so the 62.26% implied probability at BetMGM and bet365 for him to record a hit tonight seems low, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $16.06.

Game info: 

• Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pa.
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Moneyline: Pirates (-130 via bet365)
• Total: 7.0 via bet365

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Prediction: Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +260 via bet365 | Implied probability: 27.78%

The Diamondbacks are the only team in the majors with 20 wins since the All-Star Break, averaging 8.1 runs per game with an MLB-best +60 run differential. McCarthy is a big reason for that success, as he has had multiple hits and RBIs in four of the last five games.

The slugger is 11-for-21 with 12 RBIs during a five-game hitting streak and has slashed .455/.486/.712 with 19 RBIs and a team-best 14.1% strikeout rate in the last 18 games.

McCarthy batted .207 with three RBIs in the previous 20 games, but these odds provide value given his three-week tear. I am wagering $10 for McCarthy to drive in a run, which would pay $26 in profits.

Game info: 

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.
• First pitch: 6:50 p.m. ET
• Moneyline: Rays (-115 via bet365)
• Total: 8.0 via bet365

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Prediction: Jake Burger to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +310 via bet365 | Implied probability: 24.39%

Burger had a four-game home run streak snapped in Wednesday’s series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies, but he was still locked in at the plate with multiple hits and runs scored. Burger has at least one extra-base hit in six of the last seven games, and his 13 home runs since the All-Star Break are the most of any player in the league.

He's batting .361 with a 1.281 OPS over the last 18 games, and while he has 18 runs batted in in that span, we are getting better value backing him to homer than his +310 odds at bet365 would suggest, given that 11 of his 18 runs in that span have come via his own homers.

Sean Manaea has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last six starts, and considering Burger’s implied probability to go deep is as high as 27.78% at Caesars, we are getting a steal at bet365, where a $10 winning wager would return $31 in profit.

Game info: 

• Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
• Venue: Citi Field, Queens, N.Y.
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Moneyline: Team (-240 via bet365)
• Total: 8.5 via bet365

Prediction: Spencer Arrighetti Over 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -123 via Caesars | Implied probability: 55.16%

During the first seven games of their active eight-game winning streak, the Astros pitched to a 2.57 ERA and a .167 OBA and followed that up with a 2-1 victory where they allowed just two hits in 10 innings to Tampa Bay. I expect Arrighetti to continue that run of dominant pitching performances, as he has 25 strikeouts in his last two starts, including a season-high 13 in his last outing on an economical 92 pitches.

Arrighetti threw 66 of his 92 pitches for strikes and will be licking his chops to attack a White Sox lineup with the second-worst strikeout rate (25.4%) among all AL teams against right-handed pitching since the start of July.

The value at Caesars is too good to pass up, as a $10 winning wager there would pay out $18.13 compared to $16.67 for the same number at DraftKings and BetMGM. For those looking to cash in on Arrighetti’s alternate strikeout total, bet365 has the best odds at the O/U of 7.5, as FanDuel’s +136 are the next closest at any of our top sports betting sides for him to record at least eight strikeouts.

Game info: 

• Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET, Houston, TX
• Moneyline: Astros (-190 via bet365)
• Total: 8.0 via bet365

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MLB betting odds pages

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• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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