Oregon State vs. Oregon Week 13 Picks: Who Earns Pac-12 Championship Berth?

We offer up our top college football picks for the Week 13 matchup between the Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks.

Oregon’s 38-7 loss to Utah last week effectively ended the Pac-12’s chances of being represented in the College Football Playoff. However, the loss also made this year’s version of the “Civil War” rivalry much more interesting, as Oregon State’s chances of earning a berth in the Pac-12 Championship are now alive.

The Beavers would earn a berth in the conference championship game with a win over the Ducks and a Washington victory over Washington State. Oregon State has had drastic home/road splits all season. It is 6-0 straight up in Corvallis and has won just one of five road games, including losses in three straight as the visitor.

Oregon’s loss to Utah ended a five-game winning streak. However, the Ducks have won their six home games this year by an average of 19.0 points per game. Despite that home dominance, Oregon covered the spread in just one of its six home games and is 4-7 against the spread altogether.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 13 matchup between Oregon State and Oregon (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oregon State vs. Oregon Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 27, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, ORWeather: 62 degrees, mostly cloudy

Oregon State vs. Oregon Odds Analysis

This is the third time in the last four weeks that Oregon has played a game with a spread of seven or fewer points. The Ducks went 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS in the previous two. Oregon State covered the number in its last two games and won each of its last three games as an underdog outright. No sportsbook is offering higher than -7, though one can find a few 6.5-point spreads at various places.

The 61-point total is the highest for an Oregon State game in the last eight weeks. Before that, the Beavers had totals in the 60s for each of their first four games, and the Over went 2-2. This total is up from an opening number of 60.5, while most sportsbooks top out with a total of 61.5 points at the time of writing.

Oregon State vs. Oregon Picks

Oregon State +7 (-110) ??Under 61 (-115) ???

SEE ALSO: Early College Football Week 13 Parlay Picks

Oregon State vs. Oregon Predictions

Oregon State +7 (-110)

Oregon State has lost six straight games in Eugene and is 1-12 SU in its last 13 road games in this rivalry. However, we like the Beavers to capitalize on an emotional letdown as Oregon no longer has aspirations of playing for a national championship.

Oregon’s roster is in complete shambles right now. The Ducks lack enough healthy wide receivers on the perimeter to make their elite running game more feared. They were without WRs Johnny Johnson III and Jaylon Redd against Utah last week. Now, they have to deal with the sudden news that fellow receiver, Mycah Pittman, announced he was leaving the team.

Oregon heads into this game with Devon Williams as their only healthy wide receiver of its top four.

Under 61 (-115)

The lack of aerial weapons for Ducks QB Anthony Brown eliminates his dual-threat ability in their run-pass option plays. Thus, the Beavers defense will be able to key in on stopping the run. That'll negate the game-breaking ability of both Brown and RB Travis Dye.

Oregon entered last week second in the conference with 3.0 yards per rush before contact. It is likely to face many more loaded boxes, which will neutralize the running lanes the Ducks have counted on all season. 

In addition to Oregon’s limited offense, Oregon State QB Chance Nolan has not exactly lit it up on the road. He has seven interceptions in five road starts and has completed fewer than 58% of his passes in each of his last three road starts. 

Oregon’s defense entered last week allowing 3.5 yards per carry, for the best mark in the Pac-12. Thus, look for the Ducks to make Oregon State one-dimensional and make Nolan try to beat them with his arm.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Oregon State-Oregon picks made on 11/23/21 at 10:50 a.m. ET.