Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Arizona State is rested off a bye week after last playing in London as it prepares to host a 3-1 Baylor squad, but my Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction expects the road underdogs to overcome that rest disadvantage and cover the spread.
Both the Bears and Sun Devils are 1-0 in Big 12 play, as each looks for a crucial conference victory to stay atop the league standings. Kickoff from Mountain America Stadium in Tempe is set for 10:30 p.m. ET tonight, airing on ESPN. Arizona State is a 3.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Baylor vs. Arizona State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Baylor +4.5 (-120 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.83 units |
| O/U: Under 49.5 (-112 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.89 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.72 units
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💰 Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
🐻 Baylor +4.5 (-120 via BetMGM)
Baylor is a one-point loss against Auburn in the season opener away from entering this contest 4-0. And after Arizona State lost to a Texas A&M team by 28 points (while the Aggies lost their next two each by double digits), I’d imagine oddsmakers are making the Sun Devils this heavy of a favorite while citing their bye-week advantage after playing in London in Week 3.
Baylor’s offense was boosted by the return of quarterback DJ Lagway last week, after he missed two games with an ankle injury. His dual-threat ability should complement a Bears defense that just held Colorado to 13 points prior to entering as PFF’s second-highest graded team in tackling. In the process, the Bears held Colorado’s Julian Lewis to 4.7 yards per attempt after he entered the week tied for the most passing touchdowns among FBS quarterbacks of 40+ yards.
Several of the best sports betting sites are a full point lower at +3.5. While Baylor is still a play at anything more than a field goal, I don't mind paying up slightly for BetMGM's 54.5% implied odds to get another point worth of value at the high end of the market.
📡 SBR Edge: Rest disadvantage? No problem
Baylor is 4-1 ATS when playing at a rest disadvantage since 2024.
The inconsistent Cutter Boley
Arizona State has averaged 38 points per game, but how much of that is owed to the whopping 70-point total it dropped on Morgan State in the season opener? I need to see more consistency out of Sun Devils quarterback Cutter Boley, who threw two pick-6s against Texas A&M and almost single-handedly let the game get away. And for a follow-up, he averaged just 3.1 yards per dropback against Kansas, who ranked 70th in preseason Defensive SP+ projections.
My Baylor wager is a vote of confidence in Baylor first-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. Over five seasons leading Kansas State’s defense, the Wildcats finished top-30 in defensive efficiency each year, including a top-20 finish in 2022-23.
Score prediction: Arizona State 24, Baylor 21
📊 Live Baylor vs. Arizona State odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Baylor vs. Arizona State opening odds
- Moneyline: Baylor +150 | Arizona State -185
- Spread: Baylor +3.5 (-110) | Arizona State -3.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-112) | Under 50.5 (-105)
📺 How to watch Baylor vs. Arizona State: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Ariz.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
