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Jets vs. Bears Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

Our Jets vs. Bears prediction for Week 4 includes our best bet, projected score, and the latest odds for Sunday's matchup.

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: October 3, 2026 4:00 PM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: New York quarterback Geno Smith throwing a pass as we break down our Jets vs. Bears Prediction. Photo by Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images.

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Two teams dealing with key injuries will try to overcome adversity in my Jets vs. Bears prediction. Geno Smith will be playing without WR Adonai Mitchell and RB Breece Hall, while Caleb Williams' extended absence for the Bears means it's either Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum running Ben Johnson's offense.

The Bears are currently -3.5-point home favorites at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill., with the opening kickoff set for Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX).

🏈 Jets vs. Bears picks & predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds.

Pick	Bet size
Bears -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)	2.08 units
Under 43.5 (-120 via FanDuel)	1.20 units

Total wagered: 3.28 units | Max profit: 3.00 units

💰 Jets vs. Bears prediction & best bet

Bears -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)

There's still a fairly big variable in backing the Bears. We don't know whether it's going to be Keenum or Bagent under center on Sunday.

Keenum's productive start against the Eagles has led to a tough decision for Johnson. The Jets' defense is healthy and managed to hold the Titans and Packers to under 200 passing yards before a rough outing against the Lions in Week 3.

Even if Bagent gets the nod, he'll benefit from Johnson's playcalling, while being surrounded by talent in the backfield like RB D'Andre Swift and a young nucleus of skilled player talent in Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland.

Chicago's defense has quietly bottled up back-to-back quarterbacks, including Jalen Hurts, holding him and Carson Wentz under 150 passing yards. Now, Smith will be playing without his WR2 and RB1, while also missing a starting lineman.

Whether it's Bagent or Keenum, Chicago's defense is going to limit the Jets' banged-up offense. We've also got an elite offensive mind running this Bears offense.

Bet on the Bears -3.5 at -104 odds on FanDuel.

📡 SBR Edge: Jets' engine failure

The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games played.

Bears' defense roars in dominant win

Chicago's defense steps up and takes advantage of a short-handed Jets offense in this game. Bagent or Keenum will make a few big, explosive plays to gain momentum, seizing an early lead.

The frisky Jets have given every opponent maximum effort, nearly knocking off the Packers and Lions. However, the Bears' opportunistic defense under DC Dennis Allen will prove to be too much for Smith to overcome.

Score prediction: Bears 23, Jets 13

📊 Live Jets vs. Bears odds

See the latest NFL odds for every Week 4 matchup.

Jets vs. Bears opening odds

Moneyline: Jets +140 | Bears -165
Spread: Jets +3.0 (-105) | Bears -3.0 (-115)
Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)

📺 How to watch Jets vs. Bears: Week 4

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, Ill.)
TV: FOX

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Written by:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.