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Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

Our Cowboys vs. Texans prediction for Week 4 includes our best bet, projected score, and the latest odds for Sunday's matchup.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 3, 2026 3:15 PM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: Dak Prescott throwing a pass as we break down our Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction. Photo by Kirby Lee-Imagn Images.

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Arlington’s team will test its explosive offense against a defense that has so far failed to live up to lofty expectations, which I discuss in my Cowboys vs. Texans prediction.

The Texans are the 3-point betting favorite to win their first game of the season, but I'm focusing on the total for my best bet. As part of our Week 4 NFL predictions, let’s get into the reasons why I’m backing the Over for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff at NRG Stadium in Houston (FOX).

🏈 Cowboys vs. Texans picks & predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds.

Pick	Bet size
Cowboys +3 (-108 via BetMGM)	1 unit
Over 47.5 (-115 via FanDuel)	1 unit

Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: +1.8 units

💰 Cowboys vs. Texans prediction & best bet

Over 47.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

Dak Prescott and Co. have the fifth-best offensive DVOA and the fourth-best EPA per play, and they’ve been rolling since Week 2, scoring 68 points. The Texans defense ranks 16th via DVOA.

The Texans offense has been mediocre at best, ranking 16th in DVOA and 21st in EPA per play. However, Nick Caley’s unit faces one of the worst statistical defenses. The Cowboys' stop unit is tied with the Indianapolis Colts for the worst in EPA per play.

With desperation peaking for the home team, I expect C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, who will return to the lineup, to perform well to help push the score through the 47.5-point threshold.

📡 SBR Edge: Cowboys Over streak

The Cowboys have hit the Over in nine straight games and in eight successive road tilts.

Cowboys aerial attack vs. Texans pass defense

The Texans rank 23rd in opponent yards per completion (11.2), and they allow the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers (176.33). That’s particularly ominous against the Cowboys’ one-two punch of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

The Cowboys are tied for the second-best offensive pass EPA per play.

Score prediction: Texans 27, Cowboys 24

📊 Live Cowboys vs. Texans odds

See the latest NFL odds for every Week 4 matchup.

Cowboys vs. Texans opening odds

Moneyline: Cowboys +105 | Texans -125
Spread: Cowboys +1.5 (-108) | Texans -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 47 (-108) | Under 47 (-110)

📺 How to watch Cowboys vs. Texans: Week 4

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
TV: FOX

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, specializes in writing about the NFL, hockey, and soccer, focusing on player props, game predictions, and futures plays. Most often utilizing FanDuel and bet365, the latter of which usually provides better early odds, he looks for a perfect-storm combo of in-form players who fare historically well against the opponent in question. He has contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, The Hockey Writers, The Hockey News, The Calgary Herald, and other publications. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a bachelor's degree in journalism from Griffith University.