Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Two 4-0 SEC teams meet in one of just two matchups between AP top-25 teams on this weekend’s slate as No. 16 Mississippi State hosts No. 7 Alabama, and my Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction expects fireworks in Starkville.
The Bulldogs are riding high after snapping a 14-game losing streak in ranked vs. ranked matchups with last week's win over Missouri. Meanwhile, Alabama turned in its 89th straight home win against an unranked team last week with a win over South Carolina, the second-longest FBS streak since 1936.
Kickoff from Davis Wade Stadium is set for noon ET, airing on ABC. Alabama is a 6.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Alabama -5.5 (-115 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.87 units |
| O/U: Over 59.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.78 units
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💰 Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 59.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Both of this game’s starting quarterbacks (Alabama’s Keelon Russell and Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor) have come from relative preseason obscurity to skyrocket up the Heisman futures leaderboard as each currently ranks among the fifth shortest odds at DraftKings. That makes sense, considering Taylor ranks ninth nationally in QBR while Russell is completing nearly three out of every four passes from a clean pocket and owns PFF’s 11th-highest passer rating.
Even if Alabama somehow finds a way to limit Taylor through the air, the Crimson Tide rank 93rd in tackling and were just gashed for 5.4 yards per carry and 216 yards rushing by South Carolina. It may be a noon kickoff, but there should be plenty of offense throughout.
Over backers will find the best number and price at DraftKings, as the other best sports betting sites all have a total a full point higher at 60.5.
📡 SBR Edge: Lightning-fast pace
Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby's teams are known for playing at a fast pace, and this year is no exception, with his team averaging the sixth-shortest time between snaps.
Both quarterbacks can score from anywhere
Alabama’s red zone offense is a big reason I like the Over cashing. The Crimson Tide have scored 15 touchdowns in 19 red zone trips, good for the 16th-best red zone touchdown rate among FBS teams. But Alabama also ranks in the top-13 in plays of 30 or more yards, so it has flashed big-play ability. I don’t expect a Bulldogs defense that ranks 114th or worse in pass defense and pass rush to provide much resistance.
Meanwhile, Taylor has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (7-to-0) of all quarterbacks with 16-plus pass attempts of 20 or more air yards.
Score prediction: Alabama 35, Mississippi State 28
📊 Live Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State opening odds
- Moneyline: Alabama -185 | Mississippi State +150
- Spread: Alabama -4.5 (-108) | Mississippi State +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-108) | Under 59.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville, Miss.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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