Croatia vs. England Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Nations League Match
My Croatia vs. England prediction for the third matchday of the Nations League looks at whether the visitors can keep the ball rolling after picking up a win last time out. Sportsbooks expect them to do just that, as they're priced as a -134 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline.
But beyond just the moneyline, there are other ways to get behind the Three Lions. My best soccer predictions are backing a couple of volume-based plays ahead of Saturday's showdown. Kickoff from Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka, Croatia, is set for noon ET.
⚽ Croatia vs. England predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| England Over 14.5 shots | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
| England Over 4.5 corners | -150 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.33 units |
| England moneyline | -134 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.37 units |
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💰 Croatia vs. England best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
England over 14.5 shots (+100 via bet365)
This isn't a wild amount of volume for England to overcome given recent performances against high-level competition. The Three Lions produced 13 against a very tough Spanish side, and while you can't fully claim the 22 they put up against Czechia last time out as the baseline (Czechia had 10 men for a large portion of the game)...that is the exact same number they produced against this Croatian side just a few months ago at the World Cup.
England have multiple routes to producing shots, with Saka on the right not opposed to getting a few off, Kane in the middle occupying center backs, and Anthony Gordon is as capable as anyone on the pitch at getting the ball into dangerous places. The expected return of Jude Bellingham in an attacking midfield role opens up another path to volume.
This is a game that England should remain on the front foot, and they have plenty of paths to hit 15 without needing to have another extreme 20-shot performance.
🆚 SBR Edge: Volume with quality
England's 13 shots against Spain weren't empty volume: they generated 1.55 xG, put seven attempts inside the box, completed 25 crosses and produced 11 key passes against the world's best side. Add the 2.8 xG and 22 shots England generated against Croatia at the World Cup, and the Over 14.5 line looks more like a reasonable attacking floor than an aggressive projection.
🔥 More Croatia vs. England expert picks
England Over 4.5 corners (-150)
The Three Lions are set up to stretch Croatia horizontally, with Saka and Gordon providing 1-on-1 threats on each side of the pitch and Kane occupying central defenders. TAA showing up in the backfield and pressing forward will provide another source of early crosses and switches, and Bellingham will push forward into the box and force the Croatian defense to sit deeper.
I expect England to have repeated situations where they're forcing Croatia into having to defend crosses, cutbacks, and second balls around their own penalty area. Blocked deliveries and urgent clearances provide natural corner opportunities, and I'm happy to get this price for a half of a unit on just reaching five.
England moneyline (-134)
The attacking ceiling for the visitors just simply looks so much cleaner than Croatia. I'm not expecting a repeat of the 4-2 meeting back in July at the World Cup, but it's notable that the xG in that game was 2.8-0.71 for England, doubling Croatia's shot volume and ultimately controlling the game.
Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 international games, and were trashed 4-1 by Spain on matchday 2. The sheer skill of Saka, Kane, Gordon, and Bellingham - just to name a few - is just more than a Croatian side in the middle of a changing of the guard will be able to handle. It might not be a win-to-nil with Croatia posing a bit of a threat at home, but it should be a enough that England can come away with a 2-1 or 3-1 victory.
⚖️ Croatia vs. England key stats
[can delete this section for the first game of a tournament or whatever. Make the stats work for the tournament as appropriate]
| Croatia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0-1 | 1-0-1 |
| Goals for | 3 | 4 |
| xG | 2.31 | 3.22 |
| Goals against | 5 | 3 |
| xGA | 2.73 | 3.45 |
| Average possession | 46% | 56.5% |
📊 Croatia vs. England odds
Odds from bet365 as of Oct. 2; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Croatia (+333) | Draw (+290) | England (-134)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-163) | Under 2.5 (+125)
🆚 Croatia vs. England projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Croatia vs. England; subject to change:
| Croatia (4-2-3-1) | England (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Livakovic (GK) | Pickford (GK) |
| Smolcic (D) | Trent (D) |
| Vuskovic (D) | Konsa (D) |
| Gvardiol (D) | Guehi (D) |
| Perisic (D) | Hall (D) |
| Modric (M) | Anderson (M) |
| Mario Pasalic (M) | Lewis-Skelly (M) |
| Marco Pasalic (M) | Saka (M) |
| Sucic (M) | Bellingham (M) |
| Ivanovic (M) | Gordon (M) |
| Budimir (F) | Kane (F) |
📺 How to watch Croatia vs. England
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Stadion HNK Rijeka (Rijeka, Croatia)
- TV/Streaming: Fubo
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