Portugal vs. Denmark Predictions & Odds: Nations League Picks (Nov. 14)
The Portuguese will play their first game since Cristiano Ronaldo officially retired from international play, but that won't have much impact on my Portugal vs. Denmark prediction. That's because the great CR7 departed in a huff during the last international break after fighting with head coach Jorge Jesus about his playing time.
Despite the best to ever play for the nation watching from the sideline, Portugal is still a -200 moneyline betting favorite. Play from Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga, Portugal, gets started at 2:45 p.m. ET (FS2).
Portugal vs. Denmark predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal Over 17.5 shots | -110 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 0.91 units |
| Portugal Over 2.5 goals | +137 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.69 units |
| Rasmus Hojlund 2+ shots | -188 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.4 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 13 at 2 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Profit if all picks win: 2 units
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Portugal vs. Denmark best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Portugal Over 17.5 shots (-110 via bet365)
Portugal registered 23 and 20 shots in their two home games during the last break, and they posted 19 in the reverse fixture in Copenhagen. Clearing this line in three of four games doesn't guarantee it on Saturday, but it's a reasonable foundation. Denmark's defensive numbers deserve some respect, but Portugal has already shown it can overcome them.
The Portuguese midfield does a great job sustaining pressure and spreading the attack across the pitch, particularly when they're not trying to force plays into Ronaldo. Bruno Fernandes, in particular, does a fantastic job generating offense with adept passing, and also isn't afraid to fire away when the opportunity arises.
An early lead could lead to a slowdown, particularly with qualification already secured, but this is a target that can be reached without having to chase the match for 90 minutes.
Play to: -115
🆚 Who will win Portugal vs. Denmark?
Portugal will control the territorial battle with their superior midfielders, and they'll generate significantly more chances. Denmark has shown (repeatedly) in this tournament that they're dangerous on counterattacks, but they won't overcome Seleção das Quinas.
Score prediction: Portugal 3, Denmark 1
More Portugal vs. Denmark expert picks
Portugal Over 2.5 goals (+137)
Denmark's defensive record is boosted by two clean sheets against Wales, so it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Those numbers look different against the stronger sides in the group, as they allowed four goals in the reverse fixture and three goals in their meeting with Norway.
Portugal will apply pressure and exploit the spaces Denmark leaves when it tries to respond. Ramos will occupy the center-backs while Felix's movement forces difficult decisions for defenders, and both have already scored three times in the tournament.
This is a bit of a speculative bet, as it's entirely possible that the hosts score two and sit back. It's just that I see value in this price, but I wouldn't accept a lesser number.
Play to: +137
Rasmus Hojlund 2+ shots (-188)
This is a line that Hojlund has hit in every game so far in the tournament, recording three, two, two, and five shots in the last break. He picked up 341 of a possible 360 minutes in that span, and that's the kind of volume I like to back when I'm targeting a forward's shooting props. I'd rather get my targeted player with proper minutes than rely on Bet365 to save us with a "Sub On, Play On."
Denmark doesn't need to dominate possession (which is good, because they won't) for Hojlund to hit this low line. He gives them a direct outlet if Portugal push forward, and his movement can help the visitors get around the issue of having to play through the midfield. If (when) Denmark falls behind, he'll remain a key cog in their attempt to get back into the game.
Play to: -200
Portugal vs. Denmark key stats
All stats below are for the Nations League unless otherwise noted.
| Portugal | Denmark | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0-0 | 2-0-2 |
| Goals for/game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| xG/game | 1.75 | 1.35 |
| Goals against/game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| xGA/game | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Average possession | 51.1% | 52.7% |
Portugal vs. Denmark odds
Odds from bet365 as of Nov. 13; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Portugal (-200) | Draw (+375) | Denmark (+475)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-200) | Under 2.5 (+150)
Portugal vs. Denmark projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Portugal vs. Denmark; subject to change:
| Portugal (4-1-3-2) | Denmark (4-4-2) |
|---|---|
| Costa (GK) | Hermansen (GK) |
| Costa (D) | Kristensen (D) |
| Dias (D) | Andersen (D) |
| Veiga (D) | Provstgaard (D) |
| Dalot (D) | Mæhle (D) |
| Palhinha (M) | Isaksen (M) |
| Trincao (M) | Hjulmand (M) |
| Fernandes (M) | Froholdt (M) |
| Forbs (M) | Daramy (M) |
| Joao Felix (F) | Hojlund (F) |
| Ramos (F) | Osula (F) |
Portugal vs. Denmark injuries
Portugal:
- Francisco Conceicao (F) red card - suspended
- Joao Cancelo (F) yellow accumulation - suspended
- Nuno Tavares (D), muscle spasm - out (withdrawn from side)
- Rafael Leao (M), hamstring - out
Denmark:
- None
How to watch Portugal vs. Denmark
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga, Portugal)
- TV/Streaming: FS2
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