Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 14)
My best Florida vs. Kentucky prediction highlights how Florida's struggling offense can find the rhythm it had early in the season against a defense that has allowed 34 points in three of its last five games. No. 11 Kentucky is favored by 3.5 points.
Saturday's 6:15 p.m. ET game will be played at Kroger Field in Lexington, KY. The game will air on ESPN and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
Florida vs. Kentucky picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Florida +3.5 | -118 via bet365 | 1.5 units to profit 1.27 units |
| Over 52.5 | -111 via bet365 | 1 unit to profit 0.9 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 12 at 5:30 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Profit if all picks win: 3.17 units
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Florida vs. Kentucky prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Florida +3.5 (-118 via bet365)
Florida has scored in single digits in back-to-back weeks, but both the Gators' opponents during that span have allowed 19.2 points per game or fewer. Kentucky is allowing 25.8 points per game, which ranks 10th in the SEC, and the Wildcats have allowed at least 34 points four times this season.
Though Florida's offense has struggled recently, it's still averaging 32.4 points per game. Florida has scored at least 27 points against three SEC opponents, dropping at least 44 points twice. Quarterback Aaron Philo, who was benched last week, should find success against the SEC's 13th-ranked pass defense.
Florida running back Jadan Baugh has rushed for 38 or fewer yards in back-to-back weeks, but he still has two 140-yard games against SEC teams. Baugh is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and I expect a bounce-back game from him, as he faces a defense allowing 3.92 yards per carry (11th in the SEC) and 127.33 rushing yards per game (10th in the SEC).
📡 SBR Edge
Florida is great at getting opponents behind the sticks, as the defense has recorded 62 tackles for a loss, tied for the third-most in the SEC. Kentucky has only 46, tied for the 12th-most.
Third-down struggles will haunt Kentucky
Kentucky enters this game with the worst third-down conversion rate in the SEC (34.91%). While the Wildcats are good at avoiding third downs, with only 106 of them this season, they're about to face a defense that has forced 135 third downs this season. That's the fourth-most in the SEC.
Kentucky should have slightly more success on third down than usual, as Florida ranks 15th in the SEC in opponent third-down percentage (45.19%). The problem is, Kentucky's defense is the only unit allowing opponents to convert third downs at a higher rate (47.66%). And Florida is much more likely to turn third downs into first downs, as the Gators are converting 41.96% of their chances, the eighth-best mark in the SEC.
Play to: Florida +3.5 at -125
Score prediction: Florida 30, Kentucky 28
Live Florida vs. Kentucky odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Florida vs. Kentucky page.
Florida vs. Kentucky opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida +119 | Kentucky -139
- Spread: Florida +2.5 (-101) | Kentucky -2.5 (-119)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-114) | Under 51.5 (-106)
Florida vs. Kentucky weather
The weather shouldn't impact this game, as the chance of precipitation is just 3% and wind gusts are expected to reach only 9 mph.
Latest Florida vs. Kentucky injuries
Florida:
- Vernell Brown III, WR - Out
- Bryce Thornton, S - Out
Kentucky:
- Nic Anderson, WR - Out
How to watch Florida vs. Kentucky: Week 11
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: 6:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Kroger Field (Lexington, Ky.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN/ESPN Unlimited
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