Belgium vs. Italy Predictions & Odds: Nations League Picks (Nov. 15)
The Azzurri will be looking to finish atop their group in the Nations League as they travel to Brussels for matchday six, but my Belgium vs. Italy prediction are eyeing the visitors to secure a hard-fought draw, which is enough to see them through to the quarterfinals.
I'll also highlight a Pio Esposito player prop, who is in flying form for Italy.
This match will take place at the Stade Roi Baudouin.
Belgium vs. Italy predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | +260 via DraftKings | 1.5 unit to profit 3.90 units |
| Pio Esposito goal or assist | +150 via DraftKings | 1 unit to profit 1.5 units |
| Under 2.5 goals | +125 via DraftKings | 0.5 unit to profit 0.63 units |
Picks submitted: Saturday, Nov. 14 at 4 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3 units | Profit if all picks win: 6.03 units
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Belgium vs. Italy best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Draw (+260 at DraftKings)
Italy is coming off an inspiring 3-1 victory over France, handing Zinedine Zidane his first defeat since taking charge of Les Bleus. The Azzurri played a wonderful match of football and will head into this clash with the utmost confidence.
While Belgium previously beat the Italians in September, the visitors are in solid form and know that a single point would be enough to book a spot in the quarterfinals next March.
The Red Devils looked shaky at times in Thursday's win over Türkiye, needing several crucial saves from Manchester United keeper Senne Lammens to walk away with all three points. They also trailed by a goal before scoring twice unanswered.
Italy appears to be hitting its stride, and I believe the win against France will give the Azzurri much-needed momentum. With a draw enough to secure progression, I expect the visitors to take a point from Brussels.
Play to: +200
🆚 Who will win Belgium vs. Italy?
There isn't much separating these two sides. I expect a cagey affair, with Italy ultimately moving on with a draw, while Belgium's Nations League campaign will end.
Score prediction: Belgium 1, Italy 1
More Belgium vs. Italy expert picks
Pio Esposito goal or assist (+150 at DraftKings)
The star of the show in the final third for Italy has been Inter Milan's Pio Esposito. The 21-year-old has already bagged four goals and tallied one assist in five Nations League appearances, and he was the difference-maker against France, scoring a brace.
I'm eyeing a goal or assist because it offers more value at plus money, and Esposito is the Azzurri's most involved attacker.
While he didn't score against Belgium in September, he did register two shots on target, and the Italian has now netted four goals in his last three games for club and country.
Belgium looked defensively vulnerable at times in Turkey, and I expect Esposito to take advantage after ripping apart France's backline.
Play to: +100
Belgium vs. Italy key stats
All stats below are for the Nations League unless otherwise noted.
| Statistic | Belgium | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Goals for | 8 | 11 |
| xG | 7.53 | 9.82 |
| Goals against | 6 | 6 |
| xGA | 6.85 | 9.99 |
| Average possession | 44.6% | 43.4% |
Belgium vs. Italy odds
Odds from FanDuel as of Nov. 14; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Belgium (+115) | Draw (+260) | Italy (+200)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+125)
Belgium vs. Italy projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Belgium vs. Italy; subject to change:
| Belgium (4-3-3) | Italy (4-3-3) |
|---|---|
| Lammens (GK) | Donnarumma (GK) |
| Castagne (D) | Kayode (D) |
| Ngoy (D) | Scalvini (D) |
| Mechele (D) | Bastoni (D) |
| De Cuyper (D) | Calafiori (D) |
| Tielemans (M) | Barella (M) |
| Lavia (M) | Tonali (M) |
| De Bruyne (M) | Fagioli (M) |
| Moreira (F) | Vergara (F) |
| De Ketelaere (F) | P. Esposito (F) |
| Doku (F) | Cambiaghi (F) |
Belgium vs. Italy injuries
Belgium:
- Romelu Lukaku (F), hip injury - doubtful
- Amadou Onana (M), torn ACL - out
- Loïs Openda (F), fractured right fibula - out
Italy:
- Davide Frattesi (M), muscle injury - out
- Gianluca Mancini (D), muscle injury - out
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo (D), injury undisclosed - out
- Giacomo Raspadori (F), right hamstring injury - out
- Moise Kean (F), shin injury - out
How to watch Belgium vs. Italy
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 15
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Stade Roi Baudouin
- TV/Streaming: fuboTV
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