Louisville vs. Memphis Prediction: College Basketball Picks & Odds (Nov. 15)
Memphis may unanimously be voted the best team in the country that has been an underdog in every game this season, including in this home matchup against No. 10 Louisville. But even though the Tigers have already won twice as an underdog this season, my Louisville vs. Memphis prediction is down on the home 'dog following an abysmal defensive performance against Vanderbilt.
I look to build off the momentum of a 3-0 sweep in yesterday's LSU vs. Gonzaga analysis. Tipoff from FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn., is set for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Louisville is an 8.5-point betting favorite, with the total sitting at 163.5.
Louisville vs. Memphis picks & odds
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville -8.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
| Memphis team total Under 77.5 | -115 via bet365 | 1 unit to profit 0.87 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 14 at 7 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.78 units
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Louisville vs. Memphis best bet
Louisville -8.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Memphis is coming off its first loss of the season which was an abysmal defensive performance in allowing 1.45 points per possession to Vanderbilt. But of similar concern entering this matchup is the fact that the Tigers’ rebounding numbers have decreased each game (38 to 30 to 29), and that they have not topped 11 assists in a game yet this season. Memphis is coming off a season-low eight assists as it played heavy isolation basketball against the Commodores.
Vanderbilt blitzed Memphis by 23 points in a game it shot just 11 free throws. That has me fading a ridiculous ATS trend of Memphis going 11-1 ATS as a home underdog with six outright wins since Penny Hardaway took over as head coach in 2019.
This is a game that Memphis will sorely miss big man Nemanja Popovic as he is still sitting out three more games from his NCAA suspension. Louisville is off eight days of rest after out-rebounding Morehead State by 36 and turning 20 offensive rebounds into 28 second-chance points.
Play to: -9.5 (-105)
Score prediction: Louisville 87, Memphis 77
Louisville vs. Memphis team prop
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Memphis team total Under 77.5 (-115 via bet365)
Aside from Popovic being suspended, Memphis also has big roster concerns with Jayden Reid (ankle) and Luke Almodovar (head) being game-time decisions. Even if Reid plays, he will likely be less than 100% and the offense became dormant and passive while deferring to his ball dominance when he scored 32 points against VCU.
The Tigers have shot a whopping 105 free throws through two games. But Louisville has not allowed more than 19.5% of opponents’ points to come at the free throw line in the last two seasons under head coach Pat Kelsey, and they ranked in the top 45 in the lowest percentage of points allowed from the free throw line two years ago.
Memphis is also due regression after upsetting Iowa State thanks to a plus-25% 3-point percentage edge, and was outshot by 15% from inside the arc.
Play to: Under 77 (-110)
Live Louisville vs. Memphis odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Louisville vs. Memphis matchup page.
Latest Louisville vs. Memphis injuries
Louisville:
- De'Shayne Montgomery, G (undisclosed) - out
- Gabe Dynes, C (shoulder) - out
Memphis:
- Jayden Reid, G (ankle) - questionable
- Luke Almodovar, G (head) - questionable
How to watch Louisville vs. Memphis
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 15
- Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: FedExForum (Memphis, Tenn.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN, Fubo
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