Southern Miss vs. Troy Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

My Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction focuses on how poorly both of these offenses have played this season.

Neither team has played a Sun Belt game yet, so Tuesday will be the first matchup against an opponent of the same caliber for each. Still, it's hard to expect much scoring from teams averaging less than 25 points per game. Troy is a 10.5-point betting favorite, with kickoff from Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala., set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2).

🏈 Southern Miss vs. Troy picks & predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.

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💰 Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction & best bet

Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.

Under 50.5 (-110 via bet365)

Last week, Troy scored just 10 points against Utah State's 81st-ranked scoring defense. While Troy should have more success this week at home and against the 115th-ranked scoring defense of Southern Miss, I'm reluctant to put too much faith in the nation's 112th-ranked scoring offense.

The Southern Miss offense has also consistently struggled this season. The unit has yet to score more than 21 points against an FBS opponent, and even with a 49-point game against Alcorn State, Southern Miss is averaging just 24.5 points per contest.

What's most alarming is that Southern Miss's offensive struggles haven't come against good defenses. All opponents thus far have ranked 54th or worse in points allowed. While Auburn's defensive stats have more to do with facing SEC opponents, Tulane and UConn rank 68th and 96th, respectively, in scoring defense. Troy ranks 55th, allowing just 21.5 points per game.

Troy can't exploit the Southern Miss rush defense

Southern Miss is allowing 235.3 rushing yards per game and 5.23 yards per carry, which rank 137th and 126th, respectively. However, Troy's rushing attack is averaging just 4.38 yards per carry, which ranks 78th in the country.

I expect Troy to have more success against such a bad rush defense, but I can't trust this team to be consistent throughout the entire game after numerous poor performances. And considering Southern Miss doesn't have any clear offensive advantage, if Troy can't dominate on the ground, there's really no chance of this Over hitting.

Score prediction: Troy 21, Southern Miss 13

📊 Southern Miss vs. Troy odds

Southern Miss vs. Troy opening odds

• Moneyline: Southern Miss +320 | Troy -410
• Spread: Southern Miss +8.5 (-110) | Troy -8.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)

📺 How to watch Southern Miss vs. Troy: Week 6

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium (Troy, Ala.)
• TV: ESPN2