BYU vs. TCU Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
No. 10 BYU is one of three Big 12 teams that has only played three games thus far due to having an early bye week entering this week’s road game at TCU. That factors into my BYU vs. TCU prediction as I expect a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers project. BYU will be looking for its first road win at TCU since 2006.
Kickoff from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth is set for 7 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN. BYU is a 6.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 BYU vs. TCU picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: TCU +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| O/U: Under 47.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.86 units
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💰 BYU vs. TCU prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 47.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
In Kendal Briles’ tenure at TCU from 2023-25, the Horned Frogs ranked 14th in FBS in total offense and fourth in passing offense. Now that Briles is the offensive coordinator at South Carolina, TCU’s defense has been its strength.
The Horned Frogs defense ranks in the top 40 in success rate and available yards allowed. BYU averaged 4.5 points per drive (ninth among FBS teams), and is a perfect 15-for-15 in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. But TCU's defense should hold up well, as the unit has limited opponents to a 55% red zone touchdown percentage thus far (ranks 12th nationally).
With BYU coming off a bye week, I thought about backing its point spread at anything less than a touchdown. But the temperatures will be much cooler than is normal for this time of year in Texas, as a high of 74 degrees with a 65% chance of rain should lead to a lower-scoring defensive struggle.
📡 SBR Edge: TCU is causing Havoc
In terms of Havoc Rate which accounts for tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions, and pass breakups per play, TCU's defense ranks 23rd nationally.
BYU will limit TCU's explosive plays
TCU’s offense often finds itself behind the chains thanks to a 70th-ranked rushing success rate. Thus far, the Horned Frogs have overcome that with a top-20 explosive pass rate. But BYU’s defense is built to prevent that, as its 10.2% explosive play rate allowed (excluding garbage time) ranks second in the conference only behind Iowa State’s 9.5% rate.
The Cougars’ explosive play rate allowed ranks 24th overall, so I’m not expecting much from a Horned Frogs offense that ranks 80th or worse in points per drive and scoring drive percentage.
Score prediction: BYU 24, TCU 20
📊 Live BYU vs. TCU odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
BYU vs. TCU opening odds
- Moneyline: BYU -235 | TCU +200
- Spread: BYU -6.5 (-112) | TCU +6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-118) | Under 50.5 (-102)
📺 How to watch BYU vs. TCU: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: Disney+
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