Bahrain Prix in Malaysia Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
Polesitter Max Verstappen is the -200 betting favorite after his superb qualifying, with Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton trading just behind. Hamilton joins Verstappen on the front row, both of whom are featured in my analysis below.
Get a strong coffee brewing or don’t go to bed at all, as Sunday’s race near Kuala Lumpur starts at 3 a.m. ET (ESPN).
📊 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia odds 2026
Top Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -200 | 66.67% | $5 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Isack Hadjar | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| George Russell | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Lando Norris | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Oscar Piastri | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Pierre Gasly | +17500 | 0.57% | $1,750 |
All other drivers are trading at +30000 or longer.
💰 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia predictions, best bets
All picks were made based on odds after qualifying.
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Max Verstappen to win (-200 via FanDuel) | 2u -> 1u | Verstappen was dominant in qualifying, and he’s in excellent form overall. |
| Lewis Hamilton top-3 finish (-140 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.71u | Hamilton finished qualifying in second spot, and he’s one of three current drivers to win at this track previously. |
| George Russell top-5 finish (-115 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.87u | Russell finished in the top five in four straight races. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.88 units
🏆 Pick to win Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia: Max Verstappen
He’s been huffing and puffing, but Verstappen has yet to knock down the door on his first win of the season. The four-time world champion will hope Sepang International Circuit doesn’t resemble a brick house.
Verstappen finished the previous two races in second place and secured a podium spot in five of the last six GPs. I can’t see him failing to make this one count, especially after his performance in qualifying.
Verstappen easily took pole position ahead of Hamilton. Speaking of which, nine of 19 drivers have won at this track after taking pole position. I can barely look at the -200 odds, which imply a 66.67% win probability, without feeling ill.
But this is his race to lose, and I can't forego the opportunity to be in on his maiden victory of the season.
🏎️ Lewis Hamilton top-3 finish
Hamilton is one of three current drivers to win at Sepang International Circuit, which hasn’t held a GP since 2017. The experienced Brit enjoyed a masterful qualifying session for the most part and deserves to start behind Verstappen on the front row.
Hamilton has endured an inconsistent patch, failing to secure a podium spot in six straight races. This track feels different for him and Ferrari, with Hamilton primed to snatch his sixth top-three finish of the season.
👊 George Russell top-5 finish
George Russell has finished among the top five in seven of the previous nine races and is on a run of four straight. I won’t skirt around the fact that he had a bitterly disappointing qualifying, finishing eighth.
However, Russell only has to make up three positions, and he has been one of the most consistent drivers recently. It helps that his W17 is the best on the grid.
Russell enters the race on the back of his third victory of the season. He won the Azerbaijan GP, finishing fractions of a second ahead of Verstappen.
🏆 Past Bahrain Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
📺 How to watch 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
- Time: 3 a.m. ET
- Location: Sepang International Circuit (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)
- How to watch: ESPN
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