Florida vs. Missouri Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My best Florida vs. Missouri prediction anticipates No. 8 Florida avoiding a letdown performance after knocking off Ole Miss last week. Below, I explain why Jadan Baugh will simply be too much for No. 25 Missouri to handle, as Florida cruises to its fifth consecutive win to start the season.
Florida is favored by 5.5 points ahead of Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET game at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo. The SEC matchup will air on ABC and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
🏈 Florida vs. Missouri picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Florida -5.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 2 units to win 1.91 units |
| O/U: Under 56.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.86 units
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💰 Florida vs. Missouri prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Florida -5.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Florida's pass defense is allowing 248.3 yards per game, which ranks 113th in the nation. However, this stat is misleading, as Florida is allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt, which is tied for 39th-best in the country.
Missouri is a pass-first offense, ranking 42nd in passing yards per game. But I can't look past Austin Simmons' consistency issues. He hasn't completed more than 65.5% of his passes against any FBS opponent this season, completing just 59% of his attempts against Mississippi State and 55% against Troy.
Simmons hasn't thrown an interception this season, and he has 11 touchdown passes. But if you remove his game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, he'd still have seven touchdown passes, but he'd also have just a 60% completion rate and an average of 7.8 yards per attempt.
📡 SBR Edge: Turnover issues arise for Simmons
This is going to be the week that Simmons finally throws an interception. Florida has forced eight turnovers this season, which is tied for the 12th-most in the country.
Baugh to dominate Missouri's rush defense
Baugh is averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season. He leads the nation with 11 rushing touchdowns, and he's second in the country with 600 rushing yards. He's rushed for at least 136 yards in every game, and he managed 142 against Ole Miss last week.
While Missouri ranks 31st in rush defense and is allowing just 2.77 yards per carry, Mississippi State's Fluff Bothwell averaged 4.88 yards per carry on his way to 122 yards last week. Missouri's other two FBS opponents, Troy and Kansas, rank 75th and 87th in yards per carry, respectively.
Score prediction: Florida 34 Missouri 21
📊 Live Florida vs. Missouri odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Florida vs. Missouri opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida -150 | Missouri +125
- Spread: Florida -2.5 (-110) | Missouri +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Florida vs. Missouri: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Memorial Stadium (Columbia, Mo.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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