Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
No. 14 Iowa looks to cement itself as a clear threat to win the Big Ten when it tries to pull an upset of No. 5 Ohio State, and my Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction calls for a defensive struggle early as the two ranked teams figure one another out.
Iowa vaulted three spots in the AP poll with its last second road win over Michigan last week, its first Big Ten ranked road victory since 2015. Ohio State is the only one-loss team ranked in the top-8.
Kickoff from Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS), and Ohio State is a 14.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Ohio State vs. Iowa picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Ohio State -14.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 0.5 units to win 0.48 units |
| O/U: First half Under 23.5 (-105 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 1.43 units
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💰 Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
First half Under 23.5 (-105 via bet365)
There has been no hangover for Ohio State after losing to Texas in Week 2, as it scored 101 points over the last two weeks. But I’m focused more on the Buckeyes defense which has allowed just one touchdown on 36 opponent drives over the first three quarters of games.
On the other side, Iowa’s defense leads the country in points per game allowed (8.0) and is 10th in total defense (239.8 yards per game). The Hawkeyes have allowed just three touchdowns over 16 quarters of action this season.
Originally I was curious about siding with the perceived sharp action on Iowa’s side, as the line quickly moved off the key number of +14 to +13.5. But now Ohio State has drifted back out to -14.5, and Iowa is also 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as a double-digit underdog. Thus, the first-half Under is my safest bet, as Iowa will likely play conservatively and do everything in its power to keep this game close heading into the second half.
📡 SBR Edge: Multiple shutouts
Iowa is the only FBS team to record multiple 40-point shutouts this season (40-0 over NIU and 55-0 over UNI), but I don't expect a similar offensive explosion against the Buckeyes defense.
Iowa's defensive balance
Iowa’s defense is arguably not considerably stronger in pass or rush defense, as it has held two opponents under 200 yards of total offense and two under 100 yards rushing.
The Hawkeyes’ 32 points allowed through four games is their fewest in that span since 2022, and they’ve started strong with forcing punts on the opponent’s opening possession in 10 straight games dating back to last season.
Meanwhile, in Ryan Day’s 61-game Big Ten tenure, Ohio State has limited conference opponents to 15.1 points per game.
Score prediction: Ohio State 31, Iowa 10
📊 Live Ohio State vs. Iowa odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Ohio State vs. Iowa opening odds
- Moneyline: Ohio State -649 | Iowa +500
- Spread: Ohio State -14 (-112) | Iowa +14 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-108) | Under 44.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Ohio State vs. Iowa: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+
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