Colts vs. Commanders Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Anyone fancy drinking a cup of tea to commemorate Sunday’s 9:30 a.m. ET London encounter (NFL Network) featuring two of the worst-scoring defenses?
I’m counting on more leaky defense at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which my Colts vs. Commanders prediction reflects. With Marcus Mariota looking to pull off a second straight upset, the Commanders are the 4-point betting underdog. The analysis below is part of our Week 4 NFL predictions.
🏈 Colts vs. Commanders picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 3 based on the latest NFL odds.
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💰 Colts vs. Commanders prediction & best bet
Over 48.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
Sunday’s London matchup features teams that have allowed the second-most (Commanders) and third-most (Colts) points per game.
Neither defense is good at defending aerial attacks either, with the Commanders sporting the 29th-worst defensive pass DVOA and the Colts 28th-worst. With the second-best EPA per play, the Colts have been proficient on the ground.
However, the Commanders are the best against the run in DVOA. That should facilitate a pass-heavy game script.
Despite throwing an interception in each game, Daniel Jones is showing signs of being more comfortable with every outing. And Mariota exploded in his first start, leading the Commanders to a 33-point outburst against the Super Bowl champs.
📡 SBR Edge: Washington's defensive struggles
The Commanders have allowed at least 27 points in 12 of the previous 20 games dating back to the start of last season
Commanders' defensive dichotomy
Through three weeks, the Commanders are one of five teams that have not allowed a rushing TD. Conversely, they have allowed the most passing TDs (11). The Commanders have also allowed seven more fantasy points per reception to opposing wide receivers than any other team.
Score prediction: Colts 27, Commanders 24
📊 Live Colts vs. Commanders odds
See the latest NFL odds for every Week 4 matchup.
Colts vs. Commanders opening odds
- Moneyline: Colts -105 | Commanders -115
- Spread: Colts +1.5 (-120) | Commanders -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Colts vs. Commanders: Week 4
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
- TV: NFL Network
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