Virginia vs. Florida State Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My Virginia vs. Florida State prediction focuses on Florida State's success running the ball this season.
Virginia is playing in a true road game for the first time this year, which is likely to be a problem against a team that nearly knocked off SMU earlier this season. Virginia is a 2.5-point betting favorite Saturday, with kickoff from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
🏈 Virginia vs. Florida State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Florida State +2.5 (-105 via bet365) | 1.5 units to win 1.43 units |
| O/U: Over 51.5 (-106 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.94 units |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: +2.37 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Virginia vs. Florida State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Florida State +2.5 (-105 via bet365)
Virginia's defense has held three opponents to single digits, but this is still a unit that allowed 247 yards and three touchdowns to West Virginia's rushing attack two weeks ago.
With this in mind, I'm expecting a massive day from Florida State running back Ousmane Kromah. Kromah has rushed for at least 80 yards in every game this season, and he is averaging 6.2 yards per carry, despite facing two top-25 teams.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels has also found success on the ground, rushing for 142 yards and four touchdowns. And while Daniels has thrown five interceptions this season, three of them came in a shootout against Alabama. Virginia has forced seven turnovers, but five of them came against Delaware and Norfolk State.
📡 SBR Edge
Virginia ranks 51st in passing yards per game, but I'm expecting the Cavaliers to go below their season average on Saturday. While Florida State ranks poorly against the pass, the defense has also faced two top-30 passing attacks, including the top one in the nation.
Florida State's offense is putting points on the board
Florida State is averaging 32.0 points per game, scoring at least 34 in three of four games. Against Alabama, Florida State racked up 471 yards of offense, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, the Seminoles trailed by only seven with just over two minutes remaining.
Virginia's defense has only been tested once, and in that game, the unit allowed 38 points and 437 yards. While Virginia is averaging 40.5 points per game, the offense is managing just 30.5 points against Power 4 teams. With Florida State not only more battle-tested but also at home, I expect the Seminoles to win this game.
Score prediction: Florida State 31, Virginia 24
📊 Virginia vs. Florida State odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Virginia vs. Florida State opening odds
- Moneyline: Virginia -142 | Florida State +120
- Spread: Virginia -1.5 (-110) | Florida State +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Virginia vs. Florida State: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN2
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
