Kentucky vs. South Carolina Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Unranked South Carolina is a 3-point betting favorite over No. 24 Kentucky, and my Kentucky vs. South Carolina prediction thinks the market is right, with the Wildcats' overall profile being overvalued.
South Carolina has won four straight games in this rivalry dating back to 2022, with a plus-60-point differential, including last year's 35-12 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite. Kickoff from Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C., is set for 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network).
🏈 Kentucky vs. South Carolina picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: South Carolina -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.82 units |
| O/U: Over 54.5 (-108 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.75 units
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💰 Kentucky vs. South Carolina prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
🐓 South Carolina -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel)
Kentucky is ranked for the first time since 2023, but I’m not sure it should be given its body of work to this point. The Wildcats are 3-1 with one road win against Power 4 competition, a win vs. the SP+ No. 39-ranked team, and a loss by four touchdowns to SP+ No. 6. In addition, they haven’t beaten a Power 4 team with a winning record since the start of last season.
South Carolina should be the right side at home this weekend, as long as the Dylan Stewart suspension saga doesn’t hang a dark cloud. And while the Gamecocks defense ranks 120th in yards per pass attempt allowed (9.0) and 84th in passing yards per game allowed (234.0), Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey has been too inconsistent for my liking. He has two games with a QBR of 65.6 or better and two games with an 8.7 QBR or worse (against South Alabama and Alabama).
Several of our other top sports betting sites are a full point higher on South Carolina through the key number of three at -3.5, but this play is a pass for me at anything less than a field goal.
📡 SBR Edge: Kentucky's inconsistent offense
The Wildcats' offense ranks 126th in net adjusted offensive EPA/Play and is 90th or worse in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush.
LaNorris Sellers is primed for a big day
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has thrown three interceptions and taken four sacks while averaging just 6.2 yards per dropback against the first two SEC opponents (Mississippi State and Alabama). But Sellers has led the Gamecocks to a top 18 ranking in net adjusted EPA/Play, while South Carolina is 23rd in success rate.
Sellers’ 11.8 yards per attempt last year were the fourth-most among SEC quarterbacks with at least 250 snaps. As long as the Gamecocks' offensive line can keep him upright (the 43 sacks allowed were the sixth-most in FBS last year), Sellers’ dual-threat ability should give Kentucky fits.
Score prediction: South Carolina 31, Kentucky 27
📊 Kentucky vs. South Carolina odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 5 matchup.
Kentucky vs. South Carolina opening odds
- Moneyline: Kentucky +138 | South Carolina -165
- Spread: Kentucky +3.5 (-110) | South Carolina -3.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Kentucky vs. South Carolina: Week 5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Williams-Brice Stadium (Columbia, S.C.)
- TV: SEC Network
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