College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 11: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
Coming off of one of our most successful weekends of the season from a college football upset predictions perspective, we are back to keep the momentum going with another trio of underdog picks.
- Three AP top-11 teams lost as favorites last week (Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State)
- Two other unbeaten teams (Pittsburgh and Penn State) suffered their first losses, but both were underdogs
- Vanderbilt is the only AP top-25 team in Week 11 that is an underdog to an unranked opponent (South Carolina)
Our college football upset picks profited +2.25 units in Week 10 after Vanderbilt and Appalachian State scored big upsets (we narrowly missed a 3-0 sweep when Purdue lost in overtime).
This week’s college football upset picks look to kick the weekend off with a Friday night upset and also analyze one of the most high-profile games of the weekend between two SEC heavyweights. The below upset picks are part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
College football upset picks: Week 11
College football odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- New Mexico (+125 via BetMGM) at San Diego State ⭐⭐⭐
- South Florida (+140 via DraftKings) vs. Navy ⭐⭐⭐
- LSU (+125 via bet365) vs. Alabama ⭐⭐⭐
Week 11 upset predictions
College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
New Mexico (+125) ⭐⭐⭐
New Mexico lost as 7.5-point home favorites to Wyoming last week, but it was not for lack of offense, as the Lobos totaled 576 yards, and ran for 412 for an average of 14.2 per carry. It was the first time the team had two players run for 200 or more yards in school history.
New Mexico is amid a two-game losing streak dating back to its 17-6 loss at Colorado State. But it outgained the Rams by 119 yards in that contest but lost because of four turnovers that amounted to a -10.3 EPA.
While the Lobos defense ranks in the bottom five of FBS schools in Pass Success and Rush Success, an Aztecs offense that entered last week ranked 102nd and 131st offensively in those same two metrics is not built to take advantage.
San Diego State has won the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams, but oddsmakers are giving the Lobos more than a puncher’s chance, as these two teams would be considered even on a neutral field.
New Mexico has as high as a 46.30% implied probability to pull the road upset based on FanDuel’s +116 odds, so I am taking advantage of the best price at BetMGM.
Best odds: +125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 44.44%
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South Florida (+140) ⭐⭐⭐
I was ready to give Navy a pass for its 51-14 blowout loss to Notre Dame, given that its six turnovers (two on its first two drives) aided in the onslaught. What is not excusable is the Midshipmen’s 24-10 loss to a previous two-win Rice squad, marking it the first time they lost to Rice since 2002.
Some of the same turnover problems plagued the Midshipmen in the loss, as quarterback Blake Horvath completed less than 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions.
Meanwhile, South Florida has won back-to-back games by a combined 33 points and is battle-tested, having played Alabama and Miami this season. The Bulls overcame 13 penalties to total 525 yards (319 on the ground) in last week’s win over FAU.
This is a three-star play, as South Florida outgained Navy 435-330 in last year’s 44-30 road victory and held the Midshipmen to 3-of-14 on third down and just 11 first downs.
A big 12-cent gap exists between DraftKings’ +140 odds and the +128 found at FanDuel. A $10 winning wager at DraftKings would net $14 in profits.
Best odds: +140 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 41.67%
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LSU (+125) ⭐⭐⭐
It is often said that Baton Rouge at night is one of the toughest environments in the country to play in, and LSU is looking to recapture the magic of its 32-31 victory as 13-point underdogs the last time the Crimson Tide paid a visit.
In SEC play, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has an underwhelming 5-6 TD-INT ratio and has completed 61.5% or fewer passes in consecutive weeks.
The last time we saw these teams in action, Alabama completed its FBS-best eighth shutout of an AP top-25 team since 2010, while LSU was busy throwing away a double-digit halftime lead in a loss at Texas A&M.
LSU had zero rushing yards in the second half in that loss to the Aggies. But while the Tigers rank last in the SEC in rushing at 115.3 yards per game, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who is second in the conference in passing touchdowns and passer rating, is good enough to lead the team to a home upset.
Gabe Henderson also backs LSU in our Alabama vs. LSU prediction.
bet365 is one of our only best college football betting sites offering better than +122 odds for LSU backers.
Best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%
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College football picks roundup: Week 11
- College football Week 11 ATS picks
- College football Week 11 expert picks
- College football Week 11 player props
- College football Week 11 best bets
College football betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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