Heisman Trophy Sleepers: 3 Long Shots to Bet Now

Betting on the Heisman Trophy in the preseason can be a questionable decision, even more so when you're betting on Heisman Trophy sleepers. Your money will be tied up for four months on an award determined as much by narrative as by on-field success.

But when keeping those pratfalls front of mind, some thoughts looking for value can pan out. If nothing else, they may provide advantageous positioning as the Heisman race narrows in November.

🏆Who is most likely to win the Heisman Trophy?

See live college football odds from the best college football betting sites.

CJ Carr, Notre Dame QB, +700 at FanDuel

When an award is narrative-based, few storylines are more compelling than “record-setting quarterback for an unbeaten Notre Dame team.” Junior CJ Carr should have that top line on his Heisman résumé this season, particularly since the Irish should be favored by a touchdown in every game with the possible exception of an early-November home tilt against Miami. Then again, Notre Dame is currently a 6.5-point lookahead favorite in that matchup.

Carr will have national primetime opportunities beginning the opening weekend, a standalone game against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field on Labor Day Sunday, and peaking with two more NBC primetime games in November.

Voters will certainly be exposed to the passer who already threw 24 touchdowns last season despite the Irish relying on two NFL-caliber running backs in 2025.

Carr might near 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns this season.

Will there be another Fernando Mendoza?

See all of our college football picks from our team of betting experts.

It would be too easy to simply say, “No.”

This two-year (and counting) Indiana surge is not something anyone else will easily replicate. The Hoosiers may have made the hire of a generation in Curt Cignetti.

But, it is more likely to be replicated nowadays than ever before. Teams made of transfers clicking beyond their wildest expectations are more likely simply because that risk is taken more often, perhaps at a dozen different schools each season.

But if pondering this risk, why look anywhere besides Indiana? The Hoosiers brought in TCU quarterback Josh Hoover (+1500 at FanDuel), and if they can cut down on his turnovers — 33 career interceptions with one coming on about every 36 pass attempts, lowlighted by 13 interceptions last season with one on about every 32 pass attempts — Hoover could lead Indiana right back into the mix for a Big Ten title.

Would such a run come with lazy criticism that Hoover’s success is more reflective of Indiana’s system than anything else? Quite likely. But could egregious enough stats silence that nonsense? There is always a number.

💎 What Heisman Trophy longshots are most worth betting?

Malachi Toney, Miami WR, +3800 at DraftKings

Malachi Toney may be the best player in college football this year, no matter what the awards circuit and narratives decide after the season. Toney would start for most NFL teams right now, though the most vanilla professional sports league in the world will have to wait until 2028 to draft the Miami receiver.

Toney caught 109 passes for 1,211 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman. Sure, 25 receptions for 241 yards and three scores all came in the College Football Playoff, but even his 84 catches and 970 yards in the regular season demanded attention. The postseason success then made Toney more of a household name for this season.

While Ohio State and Jeremiah Smith will see some secondaries capable of surviving double-teaming him, the Hurricanes should largely be able to cut through their opponents with Toney as the knife.

He will need to star against Notre Dame shutdown cornerback Leonard Moore on Nov. 7 to strengthen a national narrative, but taking a +3800 flier on such a matchup is certainly a play with some value.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Cal QB, +8000 at DraftKings

Here is the true longshot. But if it pays, you will certainly learn how to pronounce Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s name.

The narrative around the Cal quarterback begins with the fact that new Bears head coach Tosh Lupoi basically staked his first season on retaining the star, flying directly from his introductory press conference to Hawai’i to re-recruit JKS.

Cal’s schedule does not set up for many chances for the world to notice Sagapolutele, who threw for 3,454 yards last season as a true freshman. But that could also work out in Cal’s favor: The Bears have a very manageable schedule. Clemson visits northern California in late September; a trip to SMU in late October could become make-or-break for some possible ACC chaos dreams.

If Cal makes the most of a weak schedule thanks to JKS’s arm, then this 80-to-1 wildcard could suddenly look prudent.