🏈 How to Bet Texas Tech After Sorsby Exit: Odds to win CFP, Big 12 & More

After a saga that seemed like it may never end, Texas Tech and quarterback Brendan Sorsby agreed to part ways following the gambling scandal that led to the NCAA ruling him ineligible and the Red Raiders' QB filing an injunction that was granted by a district court in Lubbock County, Texas, to make him eligible for the college football season.

However, after pushback across the country, including from Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark, Sorsby has withdrawn his court filing in Texas and declared for the NFL supplemental draft.

With the crown jewel of the Red Raiders' transfer portal class gone, we're breaking down how to bet Texas Tech after Sorsby's exit.

📊 Texas Tech futures odds

🔴 Texas Tech's win total: Over or Under 10.5?

Last season, Texas Tech went 11-1 in the regular season with its lone loss coming on the road against an Arizona State team that won the conference the season before. That four-point loss also came without starting QB Behren Morton, who was among the Red Raiders' weakest starters in 2025.

Sorsby was supposed to take the offense to another level, a level that would mean not losing 23-0 to Oregon in the College Football Playoff. But even with Morton at the helm last season, Tech beat up on the Big 12. And Morton's backup, Will Hammond, actually outplayed him in what was supposed to be the Red Raiders' toughest game in 2025, a 34-10 win on the road against Utah.

Morton exited that game with an injury, and Hammond didn't skip a beat. And though he struggled in the loss to Arizona State, and later tore his ACL against Oklahoma State, it was a glimpse of the future for Tech fans. Hammond (73.6) even put up a higher QBR than Morton (72.2) last season. 

With Sorsby gone and head coach Joey McGuire sounding optimistic about Hammond's health, saying he feels "really great about Will," the future is now in Lubbock.

Even if Hammond misses the first two games of the season and it's Kirk Francis or Lloyd Jones III under center against Abilene Christian and Oregon State, Texas Tech should win both games by three-plus touchdowns. 

And assuming the former four-star recruit, who once totalled 10 touchdowns and 807 total yards in a high school game, is ready to go by Week 3, Texas Tech will likely be favored in every single Big 12 game this season. 

Even without Sorsby, the Red Raiders enter the season top 10 in SP+ and top 30 in returning production, with several All-Big 12-level players back in the fold, including Cameron Dickey, Terrance Carter Jr., Howard Sampson, AJ Holmes, Ben Roberts, and Brice Pollock. Plus, GM James Blanchard cooked in the transfer portal again with a top 10 class set to fill holes at wide receiver and in the front seven.

With the easiest schedule in the Big 12 (71st nationally in strength of schedule) and the talent on the team, Texas Tech should be capable of going 11-1 once again.

Prediction: Over 10.5 wins (-190 via DraftKings)

Texas Tech's 2026-27 schedule

🏆 Texas Tech's Big 12 Championship odds

The Texas Tech team that won the Big 12 had nine players selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, tied for the fourth-most in the country, which included four front-seven players selected in the top 70. But luckily, Blanchard, with some help from Cody Campbell's bank account, managed to reload through the portal.

Transfers Trey White (San Diego State), Adam Trick (Miami (OH)), Austin Romaine (Kansas State), Mateen Ibirogba (Wake Forest), and Bryce Butler (Washington) should help to cover for some of what the Red Raiders lost from a top-three defense. It especially helps that Shiel Wood's defense returns Roberts, Pollock, Holmes, and John Curry, too, and is 17th in returning production (64%).

The offense is the bigger question without Sorsby. Still, Hammond flashed enough as a redshirt freshman to be optimistic about what it will look like behind a veteran offensive line and with so many playmakers around him.

Texas Tech has one of the best running back rooms in the country after Dickey and J'Koby Williams combined for 2,604 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns last season. And they're getting Quinten Joyner back healthy, who was actually supposed to start over Dickey before a preseason injury.

The pass-catching corps isn't as polished beyond Carter and Coy Eakin, but someone is bound to emerge among transfers Kenny Johnson (Pittsburgh), Malcolm Simmons (Auburn), Donte Lee Jr. (Liberty), and Jalen Jones (Alabama State).

The biggest Big 12 challengers to a roster this loaded are BYU (a team Tech outscored 63-14 in two games last year), a Utah team that had players and coaches poached by Kyle Whittingham when he took the Michigan job, and a Kansas State team with a first-year head coach in Collin Klein.

And the crazy part is Tech doesn't play any of them in the regular season.

Prediction: Texas Tech wins the Big 12 Championship (+100 via DraftKings)

🎟️ Texas Tech's College Football Playoff odds

The addition of Sorsby was to help elevate Texas Tech to the next level, a level it didn't reach last season with Morton as its triggerman. However, there really shouldn't be much of a drop-off from Morton to Hammond, assuming he's healthy, and it sounds like he will be by Week 3 at the latest.

With the weakest schedule in the conference, a strong offensive line, a special running back trio, and a defense poised to be the best in the Big 12, Tech should once again push for an 11-1 regular season record. 

If McGuire's team does that, it could still get into the College Football Playoff as an at-large bid if it doesn't win the Big 12 Championship. But I wouldn't bet against the Red Raiders in a conference championship against teams like BYU, Utah, Kansas State, or Houston.

At this point, BYU looks like the best bet to meet Tech in the Big 12 Championship again, and the Cougars' one-dimensional run-first offense will be a problem yet again against a scary Red Raiders front seven. 

The path to the College Football Playoff is clear in the Big 12 for Texas Tech.

Prediction: Texas Tech makes the CFP (-185 via FanDuel)

👑 Texas Tech's CFP National Championship odds

If I haven't made it obvious by now, I'll just come out and say it: I don't think the loss of Sorsby should impact the way anyone bets Texas Tech this season, unless you thought the Red Raiders were going to win the CFP National Championship.

In a Big 12 that's dealing with several major coaching changes (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State) and new starting QBs for bowl teams (TCU, Arizona State, Cincinnati), Tech is by far the best bet to win the conference and reach the CFP. But once there, that's when the loss of Sorsby could really hurt.

Sorsby was supposed to be the QB with first-round NFL talent set to take the Red Raiders deep into the CFP, and potentially bring the Big 12 its first national championship since 2005. And even with him, I didn't see that happening this year.

Without him, I don't believe the Red Raiders can compete with college football national championship odds favorites like Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon, and Indiana.

Prediction: Texas Tech doesn't win CFP National Championship