College Football Win Total Predictions: 3 Teams That Could Surprise

One would not need to strain to argue each of the below teams could surprise to such an extent they reach the College Football Playoff. Winning double-digit games and then your conference championship game would put each in that position, but before getting that bold, let’s simply ponder these surprising win totals.

Three plus-money Overs before August even arrives is certainly a strong way to further your preseason preparations.

College Football win total predictions

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North Dakota State Over 9.5 Wins (+180 at Caesars)

A more conservative approach could bet the North Dakota State Bison at Over 8.5 wins at -150 at bet365, but when tying up your money for four months, how conservative do you want to be?

North Dakota State’s debut season at the FBS level may come with low expectations from casual fans, but sharp college football followers know the Bison have been better than most Group of Five, now Group of Six, teams for years now. Analytics last year argued North Dakota State would have been the 16th-best Group of Five team in the country, barely behind Boise State.

They have long had the interior quality for this level, and with the Mountain West now depleted by an exodus to the Pac-12 (more on that below), the Bison should be the class of the conference. Frankly, they may already be the best team in the Group of Six.

It may seem bold to suggest North Dakota State will win 10 games in its debut season, but starting the year 2-0 should help the cause. Related: Anyone going to that season opener against Jacksonville State on Aug. 29 - with the Bison favored by 7.5 points - should reach out.

From there, North Dakota State does have the misfortune of going on the road for each of its four toughest Mountain West games, to Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawai’i. Splitting those would be a genuine accomplishment.

But remember, the market is genuinely undervaluing the Bison in their jump to the FBS. Leaning into that mistake with a plus-money thought is the best way to capitalize on it, even if you could be sweating an 11 p.m. ET kickoff on Nov. 14 in the Hawai’i Test. Get ready to find The CW.

Boise State Over 8.5 Wins (+180 at DraftKings)

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First of all, a disclaimer for all Pac-12 win totals, and no, it is not to simply point out that there are only eight teams in the conference. (But really, every single team in the conference has “State” in its name. Can we rename this conference to “Pac State” and do away with the 12 nonsense?) Rather, Pac-12 win totals are based on only the first 11 games of their schedules.

The conference has included a season-ending “flex” week, where opponents will be based on conference standings but the games will not impact conference standings. Let’s see how it plays out before anyone criticizes it; most likely, this ingenuity provides some intrigue to close the season.

So the question becomes, can the Boise State Broncos start the season 9-2 despite opening the year at Oregon? Assume that is a loss, can Boise State then go 9-1?

Why set the bar so low? The Broncos should go 10-0 in that stretch.

They will be double-digit favorites both against Memphis and at Western Michigan, likely setting them at 3-1 before heading into Pac State play. And Boise State should then be favored by double digits in every conference game.

Do 10-point favorites lose almost every weekend of the season? Absolutely. But with a veteran quarterback in Maddux Madsen, a 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, and an experienced offensive line, the Broncos should have a high enough floor to prevail even on abysmal weekends, especially when they remember a Playoff berth is likely at stake each and every weekend.

Houston Over 8.5 Wins (+130 at DraftKings)

Again, a more conservative approach exists by targeting the Houston Cougars at Over 7.5 wins, priced at -180 at bet365. But, again, that kind of juice becomes frustrating while waiting four months. Instead, let’s be bold.

Willie Fritz exceeded expectations in his second season at Houston, going 9-3 in the regular season, in large part thanks to going 5-1 in one-score games. That kind of record in tight games should spark fear of regression this season.

But tight games are natural to Fritz’s system, one that emphasizes the run even when it shouldn’t. With a dual-threat veteran quarterback in Conner Weigman, Fritz is willing to live with little margin for error.

He always has been fine living with little margin for error. In the last four seasons, Fritz’s teams have gone 16-4 in one-score games.

So let’s discard that usual regression worry. Instead, let’s focus on Houston’s veteran defense supplementing Weigman. These are the building blocks of complementary football.

Complementary football may be all that is really needed to beat the likes of West Virginia and Colorado, as Houston faces five of the Big 12’s seven-worst teams while dodging peers like Arizona State and TCU.

This win total may come down to an Oct. 17 home game against Oklahoma State, boasting a roster with 87 newcomers even if 19 of them came along with head coach Eric Morris from North Texas.

Holding a +130 ticket on the likely home favorite in such a matchup will be a delightful position to be in.