Alabama vs. LSU Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday: Week 11
College GameDay will be in attendance for what many are calling a College Football Playoff knockout contest when the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers square off in Week 11 for the 89th time.
The Crimson Tide look for their first win at Tiger Stadium since 2020, and the winner will move closer to securing a spot in the 12-team field, whereas the loser will be all but eliminated.
Our Alabama vs. LSU prediction favors the underdog hosts and expects the Tigers to cover the three-point spread, aligning with our Alabama vs. LSU early leans. Saturday's kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The below picks are part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
Best Alabama vs. LSU picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: LSU +3 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Alabama ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: LSU second-half moneyline (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama vs. LSU against the spread prediction: Week 11
LSU to cover the spread: +3 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama vs. LSU opening odds:
- Alabama: -3 (-110 via BetMGM)
- LSU: +3 (-110 via BetMGM)
Aside from one stellar half of football against Georgia, has anybody seen anything from Alabama to justify the Crimson Tide being field-goal favorites at LSU? I know I haven’t, which is one of the many reasons I love the Tigers in this spot.
The Bayou Bengals have been stellar under Brian Kelly, especially under the lights in Death Valley. They’re 13-0 at home in night games during the coach’s near-three-year tenure, which includes two Top 10 wins over Alabama (2022) and Ole Miss (2024).
Kelly is also 21-3 in his career coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, Kalen DeBoer is in search of his first road conference win since taking over in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama is riding a two-game road losing streak with defeats to Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Every time the Crimson Tide lost to the Volunteers since 2000, they were also beaten by the Tigers in the same season. These trends don’t exactly inspire confidence, especially considering Nick Saban is no longer roaming the Alabama sideline.
About 64% of the moneyline tickets at BetMGM lean Alabama in this matchup, likely because the public believes the visitors have a perceived advantage with Jalen Milroe’s dual-threat ability.
But Blake Baker and Co. have had two weeks to game plan for the mobile quarterback; they won’t be fooled like they were against Texas A&M.
Our Mike Spector is also backing LSU in his college football upset picks.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Alabama vs. LSU best bet
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LSU second-half moneyline (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Tigers' loss to Texas A&M marked the first time since 2005 that they took a two-score lead into the intermission and were outscored by 10+ points in the second half.
It was one of the worst halves the Bayou Bengals have played in recent memory, leading to an overreaction from oddsmakers that sees LSU listed as a hefty underdog in the second half against Alabama.
Don’t let recency bias fool you, the Tigers are a second-half team. LSU is 5-2-1 straight up in the second half this season, and it would be 6-2 if it hadn’t taken the foot off the gas up 35-3 against South Alabama.
Meanwhile, Alabama is 2-1 straight up in the second half on the road, with a loss last time out against Tennessee.
LSU has been better in the second half this year than the first and has an offense that can move the ball up and down the field more efficiently than its opponent, too.
DraftKings is listing the team that has better coaching and an undeniable home-field advantage at plus money to win the second half. I'll take those odds every time.
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Alabama vs. LSU odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Alabama vs. LSU game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 73 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph E
- Favorite: Alabama -3 (-110 via BetMGM)
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